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WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus is an excellent card for where the WEC is at this point in its life, and promotions like Strikeforce should stand up and take note. While there are enough notable names at the top of the card (including the universally loathed Jamie Varner) even the undercard fights that are never going to make it to the live broadcast mean something. The WEC is still expanding and trying to sort out the lightest divisions in mainstream MMA, but every fighter on this card has a place in that story moving forward. Nobody is going to pick up a win here and then cease to exist from a promotional standpoint. After this card the question will be “what is next for these fighters in these divisions” not the simple “How can use taco bell techniques to give us the same basic products with a slightly different flavor?” that comes after a Strikeforce show. That’s why the WEC promotion is always seen as robustly growing and Strikeforce is always seen as teetering on nonexistence.
Kamal Shalorus (+150) vs. Jamie Varner (-170)
Love him or hate him (and most love to hate him), Jamie Varner is a very, very good fighter. He has excellent defensive and offensive wrestling, tight boxing, good pop in his hands, and a “win at all costs” mentality. That willingness to sleaze or bicycle his way to a win, coupled with the fact that Varner is a very sore and ungracious loser has made Varner one of the more reviled figures in the sport, but it must not be overlooked that it has also racked up wins for the former champ.
Kamal Shalorus is a physical specimen that has good natural power, but his hand technique lags far behind the former champion’s. Varner is slick enough to cut through Kamal’s sloppy haymakers and bust him up, or stay on his bicycle and potshot him. Kamal could have real problems with Varner’s punches, since his natural inclination when punched is to just flail and try to back opponents off that way, which would just let Varner land even heavier shots. Kamal is a very tough guy, but he doesn’t want to be taking many of Varner’s punches.
Working in Kamal’s favor though is the fact that Varner relies on his excellent wrestling to control a fight. He doesn’t always work ground and pound, but he uses clinches and takedowns to fight at his own pace and impose his timing on his opponent. This is absolutely crucial for Varner because he has terrible gas for a lightweight and really needs those takedowns late in the fight to retain control and make it through the late rounds. Unfortunately for Varner, Kamal is a true world-class wrestler with legitimate international wrestling credentials and accomplishments, including an appearance for Great Britain at the 2004 Olympics.
If Kamal just tries to be a gunslinger and bang it out with Varner, he is going to get chewed up, either quickly crushed by counter shots or slowly banged up. Varner does have the power to knock out a guy as tough as Kamal, especially with how simplistic Kamal’s head movement is, and he also has the ability to potshot for two rounds and then just play keep-away for a third. Kamal, however, can pick up the upset here if he turns this into a wrestling match. There’s nothing more tiring in MMA than wrestling, and Varner does not want to be controlled and end up underneath a hulk like Kamal. If Kamal works diligently on taking Varner down, Varner’s gas will be completely gone by midway through round two, and Kamal can bash him up and take the fight. Kamal isn’t a stupid guy, so this will most likely be his gameplan, and he’ll find success with it. Kamal Shalorus by decision.
I think Kamal is being undervalued because of Varner’s credentials as a former champion and striking advantage. Varner’s reliance on his wrestling to be the foudnation for his striking game and Kamal’s ability to take that away make Kamal a good bet.
L.C. Davis (+155) vs. Josh Grispi (-180)
Davis is a strong wrestler and solid fighter, but he is at an offensive disadvantage against Grispi. Grispi has a much more dangerous submission game, and much sharper and more dangerous hands. This will be a close fight, and if Davis can get on top and do good work, he could win, but Grispi should be more threatening throughout. Josh Grispi by decision.
Danny Downes (+350) vs. Chris Horodecki (-450)
Chris Horodecki’s reputation has shifted from being a wunderkind phenom to being that guy that always loses in the most ridiculous and embarrassing way possible, whether it be a schoolyard arm-pin beatdown or an even more ridiculous Nigerian KO scam. The reality is that Horodeck is both of these men. He’s a very talented young fighter that is not at all ready for the top flight of the sport. However, when matched up against fighters the caliber of Downes, Horodecki will again look like a phenom, as his natural talents just far outpace anything Downes brings to the table. Downes will suffer the fate of so many other late replacements and be bashed up and sent home with a check. Chris Horodecki by TKO round 1.
Mark Hominick (-160) vs. Yves Jabouin (+135)
This is a terrible style matchup for Jabouin. Jabouin is an athletic guy and has good technical kickboxing skills, but that’s all he’s got going for him. Hominick is not only a better kickboxer, he is also much more dangerous as a grappler, so Jabouin is just out of luck. Unless Jabouin can land one of his huge flashy strikes at put the tough Hominick out of the fight, he’s going to get out-pointed, worn down, and finished. Mark Hominick by submission round 2.
Will Campuzano (+180) vs. Eddie Wineland (-210)
Eddie Wineland is going to look very good against Campuzano. Their records appear similar, but Wineland has real boxing skills and can compete at the WEC level, but Campuzano needs much more time in the oven. He was able to get by a completely one-dimensional Coty Wheeler, but Coty is zero for three in the WEC, and has no place in the modern incarnation of the promotion. Look for Wineland to simply outclass Campuzano with boxing as well as wrestling. Eddie Wineland by TKO round 1.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Karen Darabedyan (-350) vs. Will Kerr (+400)
Will Kerr is going to get crushed. Kerr is a decent grappler, but he is super hittable and vulnerable to just being monstered, as Kamal Shalorus showed. Karen is a very inexperienced fighter, coming off a loss due to that inexperience, where he basically gave away the fight to Bart Palaszewski in the middle of an epic assbeating. Kerr doesn’t have the kind of toughness and veteranship that let Palaszewski win that fight, and Karen is an ever-improving fighter that is unlikely to make that kind of mistake again. Kerr just has no answer for Karen’s hands or ground and pound. Karen Darabedyan by TKO round 1.
Wagnney Fabiano (-280) vs. Frank Gomez (+285)
You might remember Frank Gomez from when Scott Jorgensen pinned him against the cage like a bug with a guillotine, and the hilarious squirming that resulted. Gomez isn’t actually a completely garbage fighter, having picked up two decent wins since then, but he is not at all ready for Wagnney Fabiano. Wagnney has a completely suffocating ground game and will inexorably grind towards submissions, aside from the bizzare blip of taking Mackens Semerzier too lightly and putting himself right into a triangle. This fight is going to be Wagnney Fabiano in top control looking to set up an arm triangle until he actually finishes Gomez or the final bell rings. Either way, the Nova Uniao product is leaving with his hand raised. Wagnney Fabiano by submission round 1.
Bendy Casimir (+215) vs. Erik Koch (-220)
Casimir is nasty with aggressive submission attempts, but he’s going to be at a disadvantage here because Koch is a very skilled grappler himself, and likely won’t be surprised by Casimir simply trying to throw subs on him. Look for Koch to control this fight on the feet with his reach and on the ground with his positional game. It’s not easy to finish Bendy, but with the Risks Casimir takes and the fact that he will gas out later in the fight, Koch should be able to find a submission eventually. Erik Koch by submission round 2.
Rafael Assuncao (-155) vs. Diego Nunes (+155)
Nunes is a more technical striker than Assuncao, but Assuncao has serious toughness and power, which can go a long way in making up for that. Rafael is also an excellent grappler and all-around stud. Nunes is also much longer than Assuncao, who will exacerbate this problem by virtue of never really punching straight. This isn’t an ideal style matchup for Assuncao, who will have to turn in a strong performance to justify his top ten ranking. He’s a gamer and has the skills, so he should be able to find a way to win, be it by making the fight a brawl or getting Nunes to the ground and using his superior grappling. Rafael Assuncao by decision.
Chris Cariaso (+190) vs. Rafael Rebello (-205)
This is a fight between two men just coming out of the embryonic stages of their professional career. Neither man has a big name on his record, and this is certainly the toughest matchup each has faced yet in their career. Cariaso has slightly nicer scalps on his record, and Rebello is coming off more than a year of inactivity, as well as a recent loss to the middling Kenji Osawa. Cariaso has more potential, which can put someone over the top in a fight like this. Chris Cariaso by decision.
Cariaso is a sizable underdog for a fight this close. Volume bettors should definitely make a play.
Renan Barao (-290) vs. Anthony Leone (+255)
Barao is an excellent grappler coming from the Nova Uniao Kimura camp, an offshoot of the incredible Nova Uniao camp that produced Jose Aldo among a host of other incredible fighters in the lighter ranks. Leone is good enough to give him a real challenge, and be his toughest fight to date, but Leone just doesn’t have any tool that can really threaten Barao and put him out of his traditional game. Leone will be on the defensive throughout this fight. Renan Barao by decision.
My plays:
1u on Chris Cariaso at (+190) to win 1.9u
1u on Kamal Shalorus at (+145) to win 1.45u
