Jun
26
2010
0

Quick Hits for Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers

By Nicholas Bailey

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Werdum only matters if an upset happens. If all goes according to plan, there will be no surprises or changes in any narrative because of this event. Fighters that were heavily favored to win their fights will have beaten opponents that weren’t seen as serious threats, and we can perhaps anticipate more even matchups and more relevant opponents in the future.



Fedor Emelianenko (-550) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+400)

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Picking against Fedor at this point reeks of nothing more than rank contrarianism. He is the most dominant and accomplished heavyweight the sport has ever seen, and has sat atop the rankings in the division for years now. Werdum is a talented fighter, but he is not nearly as versatile as Fedor and faces the double disadvantage of a terrible style against the uncrowned king.

Werdum’s best skill is his grappling, but he has trouble making use of it due to a very weak shot. His best takedowns come from the clinch, but that is where Fedor is in control. On the feet Werdum is tough, rangy, and has natural power, but his technique leaves much to be desired and leaves him open to brutal punishment. With the increase in one-shot kill power Fedor has demonstrated in recent fights, Werdum cannot afford to let one of those diving right hand leads get through.

To have a shot at a ‘real’ Werdum must find a way to bowl Fedor over and take top position, a feat Mark Hunt was able to accomplish, and as such not one that is beyond the pale. However, Fedor is by no means helpless off his back, and will prove very difficult to submit or remain on top of.

To get a “W” but none of the respect that goes with it, Werdum will have to try to slash Fedor’s notoriously fragile skin up for a cut stoppage, a goal made somewhat more difficult by the fact that Strikeforce’s crappy rules disallow elbows.

In this fight expect Fedor to play keep away with Werdum and set up punishing single shots that eventually drop the big Brazilian for a TKO stoppage. Fedor’s head movement is too good to get caught by Werdum’s slaps, and Fedor will control the clinch. Fedor Emelianenko by TKO round 1.


Champion Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos (-1500) vs. Jan Finney (+800)(for women’s middleweight title)

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Finney is taking a beating to get an entree to Strikeforce so she can fight at 135. This isn’t fair or right or sporting, but it’s the reality of women’s MMA at this point. There is no one to challenge Cyborg right now, and Strikeforce hasn’t done much in the way of building up challengers. Cyborg will come out and monster the smaller woman here. Cris Cyborg by TKO round 2.


Cung Le (-300) vs. Scott Smith (+275)

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Le battered Smith last time but did so without much of a gameplan, simply looking for the biggest video game move to throw at any particular instant, which eventually wore Le out and left him susceptible to punches, just as it did late against Frank Shamrock. Smith hits very hard and never quits, so he managed to exploit this vulnerability for a huge come-from-behind win in their last tilt.

This time Le will have more killer instinct and batter Smith more diligently for a stoppage. Smith is very mentally tough, but his body gets hurt easily, as his short arms can’t provide much cover for his long torso. If Le turns on the gas and really works to finish off Smith with diligent accumulated damage instead of one big kick, this fight should be a cakewalk for him. If Le fights stupidly and just wears himself down again, Smith can still knock him out, but Smith has never been a man to avoid a beating. Expect it to stick this time. Cung Le by KO round 2.


Pat Healy (+325) vs. Josh Thomson (-475)

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Healy is just not cut from the same cloth as Thomson. He’s a good fighter, but he’s never shown any next-level type ability. Unless Thomson’s wrestling has deteriorated and he turns out to be at a big disadvantage to Healy in the takedown department, Thomson should walk right over him. Josh Thomson by decision.

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