UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin represents the true power of the UFC marketing machine and brand at this point. They’ve put together a titanic main event, and due to scheduling, injuries and other factors, the undercard is more or less irrelevant crap. When Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown is not only a main card fight but a better choice than many of the prelims would be, then a card is very weak. Yet the card will sell an enormous amount of pay-per-views and the the main event is reportedly set to break betting records.
Much of this weakness is due to the loss of Wanderlei Silva and the vestiges of respectability and importance that still attach themselves to his scraps. However, because the UFC is the UFC even a card that has far less import than normal from top to bottom, there are many quality fighters involved and serious fight fans will be seeing more top-ten talent than you can see on any non-Zuffa card.
Champ Brock Lesnar (-140) vs. Interim Champ Shane Carwin (+115) (heavyweight title-unification bout) 
There’s going to be a lot of beef in the Octagon when these two step in, and it’s going to be very interesting to see what comes of it. There are distinct questions about both men, but chances are slim that more than one or two of them gets answered in this fight. In fact, the chances for a quick and one-sided blowout are very high.
If Carwin lands a few good punches, this fight is over. Everyone acknowledges that. Less widely acknowledged, but just as true, is the fact that if Lesnar gets a clean takedown and establishes and holds top control, Carwin is done for. He might not get finished quite as quickly, but if Lesnar really gets to work on him, it will take the fight right out of him. We’ve seen nothing from Carwin to indicate he can get out from underneath Lesnar in the middle of the Octagon, although he did do a good job of getting back up from Gabriel Gonzaga against the cage, especially impressive given Gonzaga’s grappling credentials. The ability and drama of a fight that can finish at any time is part of what makes MMA so exciting, but the fact that we’re not guaranteed more than a few seconds of combat in any fight can leave fans wanting more. After all the hype and pomp that went into Carwin/Mir was a rapid and instantaneous finish due to the first significant offense of the fight really fully satisfying?
Fans have certainly waited a while for Lesnar to make his return. This cuts both ways. He will be rusty, as it’s now been nearly a year that he’s gone without a fight, which certainly affects a fighter with so little experience. On the other hand, despite the fact that a large amount of that time was spent ill or purely on recovery, some of that time was also spent practicing new techniques and improving old ones, something a fighter with as little time in the game desperately needed. Months and months of improvement and training could bring drastic changes in what Lesnar brings to the table beyond his titanic physical base.
That physical base and its possible deterioration is another interesting aspect. Lesnar was very very seriously ill, and spent weeks in a hospital bed. The man lost 40 pounds that he’s acknowledged, and had to put it back on. For someone that has relied so much on sheer physicality, both in his wrestling and MMA careers, this kind of wear and tear on the body could have outsize effects.
The other blip in the story of Lesnar as the hulking figure that simply bench-presses all his opponents with piles of muscles is the fact that he had a close and competitive fight with a middle-aged and 220 pound Randy Couture. It was amazing to see the former Champ nearly swallowed within Lesnar’s muscles, but still maintaining his own position and threatening Brock with takedowns.
Trying to replicate what he did against Mir and what Couture did against Lesnar is Carwin’s best path to victory here. If he can push Lesnar into the cage and force clinch-fighting, he can use the cage to stall takedown attempts or escape back to his feet, and he can make Lesnar’s reach work against him while delivering punishing short strikes like the kind that crushed Mir. If Carwin truly believes in his cardio and wrestling, this would also be a great way to wear Lesnar down to be finished off in the later rounds. Lesnar has thrown some very nasty elbows at close range, but Carwin would have the advantage when it comes to dirty boxing, unless Lesnar can just drive straight through him into takedowns.
What Lesnar needs to do is just smash Carwin into the center of the octagon right from the opening bell. Big men are almost never really used to being pinned underneath someone that is as strong or stronger than they are, and Carwin is very used to being the big dog in the gym. Lesnar has shown a natural aptitude for riding an opponent and delivering punishment, which would take the wind right out of Carwin’s sails.
Neither man would be well-served to strike at range. Carwin is giving up a bit of height and definitely some reach, as well as striking versatility, with Lesnar having some kicks, knees, and nasty standing elbows in his bag of tricks. Furthermore, Lesnar would like nothing more than to shoot underneath a Carwin haymaker for an easy takedown. Any time Carwin is allowed to move around the ring and set up punches, Lesnar has to worry about his power and the one-shot knockout. These factors, combined with the natural tendency for wrestlers to want to put their hands on opponents, mean that there will probably be very little in terms of pure striking exchanges, with each man trying to take control of the fight with wrestling.
When it does come to exchanging blows, both men are a bit immobile, with giant heads sitting on top of stacks of muscle that take a while to get moving. Mir teed off on Lesnar’s face, and Gonzaga threw a few punches right into the middle of Carwin’s face. When Lesnar got hit, he skated around and landed a desperation takedown, whereas Carwin simply planted his feet and flailed huge punches. That combination really spells a quick finish if either man gets rocked.
Much has been made of the Div I/Div II wrestling credentials distinction between the two fighters, but this really seems silly. The reality is that neither man could compete at the Div I level now, due to no longer training specifically for college wrestling. It probably means Lesnar is a more talented wrestler and has a higher ceiling, but the reality is that what truly matters is how well each man balances his wrestling training with the rest of his MMA training, and how well he integrates it into his game. GSP never wrestled in college, and Jon Jones didn’t compete at an elite level, but both of those men slam-dunk all sorts of wrestlers in MMA. All Carwin really needs to do is stall out in the clinch enough to dirty box and beat Lesnar up, so even if he is at a slight disadvantage, he could still “win” the wrestling in the overall scheme of things.
With Carwin training regularly with a team full of elite wrestlers, and the difficulties Lesnar had with a much smaller man with excellent technique, Carwin has a slight edge here. With the time off, Lesnar’s performance could be shockingly good or shockingly bad, and it would be very little surprise if Lesnar did in fact get early takedowns and manhandle Carwin. Carwin simply has a more easily achievable path to victory: push Lesnar to the cage and rough him up there, whereas Lesnar has to survive on the feet, set up a takedown, land it somewhere where Carwin can’t cage-walk back to his feet, and do significant damage. The results will be very interesting to see. Shane Carwin by TKO round 1.
Carwin opened at +185 quite a while ago, which represented a great bet, and one that I took, but the line is quickly becoming unbettable. If the odds improve on Carwin before the fight, I’d definitely take him again at +130 or above.
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-205) vs. Chris Leben (+170)
Well, Leben is certainly leaping right back into the mix, and it will be interesting to see what kind of effect that has on him physically, since he’s not always the most well-conditioned athlete anyway. Leben has a brick for a head and a brick for a hand. That’s all he’s got on Akiyama. Akiyama is a much faster fighter, a more technical striker, and has a more refined submission game. Leben wins this fight if Akiyama stands in front of him and gets hit. Other than that, he’s getting taken to school.
Akiyama is much slicker and quicker on the feet, with better boxing, which, as often happens to Leben, will force Chris to come forward to try to crowd Akiyama and keep him from moving around, leading to a bit of a repeat of the Bisping fight, although Akiyama probably won’t be as committed to riding his bicycle. The other interesting wrinkle is that Akiyama has some real power in his hands. Leben is as tough as they come, but Akiyama does have the power to rock him with clean counters, which could really make Leben think twice about trying to wade in, and turn the fight into a rout.
Of course, the danger is always there with Leben. If Akiyama gets lazy and stands straight in front of him, he could be floored, just as happened against Misaki just prior to the illegal kick. The smartest thing for Akiyama to do would be to throw Leben from the clinch, although clinch-work is Leben’s strongest suit. Wearing Leben down early will take some of the pop off his hands, and definitely most of the speed, as he telegraphs his punches even worse when gassed. Yoshiro Akiyama by decision.
Between Akiyama’s power being enough to punish Leben, his much slicker standup, and the unknown effects of a two-week turnaround, Akiyama is a good play at -200.
Matt Brown (+175) vs. Chris Lytle (-200)
Lytle fights like an idiot, and probably will do so again here. He has the boxing chops to jab rings around Brown, but instead he’s more likely to run around throwing haymakers of dubious efficacy. He has the ground skills to take Brown’s back and choke him out in the first round, but, again, the haymakers are what you’re going to see. He should be able to block most of Brown’s punches and counter effectively, but he will probably run face-first into at least a few of his blows.
Working in Lytle’s favor is the fact that he has a fantastic chin and can afford to take one shot from Brown to deliver one in return. Brown is a decent striker, but he isn’t a huge slugger, getting by mostly on his toughness and grit, getting TKO’s because he’s still around and hitting back in the second and third round. Just as Lytle can survive the idiocy of letting Brown hit him, if his flailing ends up with Brown cranking away at a submission, he has the chops to escape.
Maybe one of these days Lytle will realize that the easiest bonus check to get, percentage-wise, is the submission of the night, since it very often goes to the only submission on a card, and we’ll get to see him apply a similarly reckless style to his grappling, but as things stand now, Lytle will be winging haymakers looking for those big bonuses, and Brown will eventually wear down late in the fight, as he always does, and give up the ghost. Chris Lytle by TKO round 2.
Brown just does not have a 1 in 3 shot of winning this. Lytle has a huge margin for error because of his chin and sub defense, and he simply outclasses Brown in the fight. I like Lytle for a play.
Stephan Bonnar (+190) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (-210)
Bonnar is terrible. He has not been training well since Carlson Gracie died, which is why he hasn’t really improved since his stint on TUF’s epic first season. Furthermore his body is betraying him, breaking down with injuries that keep him from training and fighting often enough to keep his momentum going. He really doesn’t have anything to threaten Soszynski. He doesn’t hit hard enough, he’s not a good enough wrestler, and he isn’t slick enough with his submissions. Stephan does have the toughness and skills to stick around and stink up the arena and make Soszynski look bad, but there isn’t really a gameplan that doesn’t end up with Bonnar being exhausted, bruised, and bloodied and Soszynski having his hand raised. Krzysztof Soszynski by decision.
Kurt Pellegrino (+160) vs. George Sotiropoulos (-170)
Sotiropoulos has a massive and flashy coming out against perennial underachiever Joe Stevenson, but Pellegrino has been flying under the radar racking up a pretty impressive list of wins for himself, although few that captured the imagination like Sotiropoulos picking up a big upset in front of an Australian crowd using flashy rubber-guard techniques.
Pellegrino is a very well-rounded fighter, with serious jiu-jitsu chops made all the more dangerous by the takedowns and positional game he brings from his wrestling. On top of all of that, he has some pop in his hands and decent boxing, while being a very tough guy overall. The big downside for Pellegrino is that he frequently seems to space out and make bonehead mistakes in the middle of fights, which has held him back.
Sotiropoulos is a more slick fighter all-around, with fancy rubber guard techniques where Pellegrino brings a meat-and-potatoes positional grappling game, and a bit more fluid striking, where Kurt again has a very middle-of-the-road straightforward amateur boxing style, although he lacks Kurt’s toughness and power. While Sotiropoulos looked fantastic on the feet trading with Stevenson, Stevenson has an advanced case of T-rex disease and has approximately six inches of reach with either arm, yet still tries to throw punches from far out of range. Sotiropoulos backers would be well-advices to recall the bashing that Tom Speer put on him. While many fighters on TUF are still in the embryonic stages of their careers, Sotiropoulos was already a well-developed fighter at that point, so it’s hard to think he’s moved too far beyond that point.
If Pellegrino has a brain fart, Sotiropoulos could take an advantageous position and win a round or sneak in a submission, but overall he should be able to dictate the terms of the fight with his reach and wrestling. If he pins Sotiropoulos to the ground for two out of three rounds and doesn’t lose position, he will be given the decision. Pellegrino by decision.
This is a close fight and Pellegrino does have a history of choking, but as the underdog he is good for a play.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Brendan Schaub (-300) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (+275)
Don’t be fooled by the fact that he got knocked out by a fat guy. Brendan Schaub is a pretty decent fighter. Chris Tuchscherer is not. Tuchscherer really has nothing going for him in the fight game other than being a big guy that is pretty athletic and can wrestle a bit. He’s struggled mightily with decidedly poor opposition, and, though he deserves a gold star for the amount of genital abuse he suffered from Gabriel Gonzaga, that doesn’t make him a better fighter.
Schaub will be much faster and slicker on the feet, and Tuchscherer will not be able to really pound on him on the ground, if it goes there. Look for Schaub fo find a home for his lead right early and often, bashing Tuchscherer up and putting him away. Brendan Schaub by TKO round 1.
Seth Petruzelli (+160) vs. Ricardo Romero (-170)
Seth Petruzelli has taken some time off from ruling over Smoothie land as its Smoothie King, as well as his various homoerotic antics, to actually fight again in a major show. This is a pretty close fight, as Romero is a good prospect and Petruzelli is a solid, if below-average fighter. Romero should out-class Seth throughout the fight, but Petruzelli is tough and has enough power to turn it around if Romero gets sloppy. Romero can control a fight from top position, which would be the safest bet against Petruzelli, but he can probably also out-point Seth if he can’t get takedowns. Romero badly needs to win this fight if he wants to stay in the UFC, so he will be focused and put on a workmanlike performance. Ricardo Romero by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Un-aired)
Kendall Grove (+135) vs. Goran Reljic (-160)
It’s been said time and again, but it’s always the most important factor in any Kendall Grove fight. He’s very gifted offensively, but can’t take a punch and falls apart the first time he gets seriously cracked. He was absolutely taking Mark Munoz to the woodshed, but then the tough wrestler bounced back and popped Grove, which was the beginning of the end in that second round.
Reljic is an incredibly dangerous guy for someone as fragile as Grove. He’s rangy, has a wide variety of strikes, and throws everything with power. All he has to do is hang around long enough to land one of those strikes to take the wheels off Grove’s wagon and send him careening to the canvas.
Grove does have the offensive power to get Reljic out of the cage before this all transpires, as he’s shown dangerous (and of course long) punches and knees, as well as an excellent submission repertoire, and Reljic is fallible, as we saw against the middling CB Dolloway. Still, Reljic is well-rounded enough to hang around and have staying power in the fight, and Grove simply is not tough enough to. Goran Reljic by TKO round 1.
At -160 Reljic is being a little undervalued. He KO’s grove too easily for the line to be that close, so he’s good for a play.
Dave Branch (+235) vs. Gerald Harris (-260)
Dave Branch doesn’t have a big name, but he’s actually a pretty talented prospect coming up through the ranks. Unfortunately for Branch, Harris has become a very solid, well-seasoned fighter after not being very impressive on TUF. Harris has a big advantage on the feet, but Branch is no joke on the ground, so this is a fairly traditional striker vs. grappler fight in the modern era, where both fighters are reasonably competent in all areas but have distinct stylistic advantages.
In the end, Harris’ power and boxing technique should be enough to crack Branch and make him sorry this was his first UFC fight. Your first night under the bright lights is nerve-wracking enough without having to worry about getting knocked out and setting up your takedowns perfectly. Gerald Harris by TKO round 2.
Forrest Petz (+160) vs. Daniel Roberts (-180)
Petz is filling in here as a late replacement, which works against him. Roberts is a very strong grappler, a strength which has traditionally been Petz’s greatest weakness. On the other hand, Roberts is coming off a crushing knockout and Petz is a versatile and dangerous striker, as shown in producing the most one-sided decision in UFC history against Sam Morgan of the course of a comical number of knockdowns. If Petz can connect, he’ll put Roberts down, but with little time to prepare and a history of being submitted, this will be academic. Roberts will get a takedown, work a bit, and then find a submission. Daniel Roberts by submission, round 1.
Jon Madsen (+145) vs. Karlos Vemola (-167)
This fight, like all Jon Madsen fights, has the potential to be a really ugly stinker. Madsen is just good enough to stifle low-level opponents and squeak by them on the judge’s cards, which is definitely not the most fan-friendly style. Vemola, on the other hand, looks like a comic book hero, and fights as if he trains by watching action movies. Fans can expect just straight up musclehead brawling to come from Vemola, with Madsen either being overwhelmed early and crushed or out-lasting Vemola to pick up the second and third rounds for a pedestrian decision. This is a fight that either man could take, and it’s going to come down to Madsen tying up Vemola early and slowing him down enough to survive the initial onslaught, which he probably can do. Jon Madsen by decision.
This fight is a coin flip. If Vemola gets lucky and lands on Madsen’s chin, it’s over. If he doesn’t and just punches him in the shoulders, Madsen will take him behind the woodshed and sit on him. That makes Madsen at +145 a pretty good play.
My plays:
1u on Shane Carwin at (+185) to win 1.85u
1u on Jon Madsen at (+145) to win 1.45u
1.6u on Goran Reljic at (-160) to win 1u
1u on Kurt Pellegrino at (+160) to win 1.6u
2u on Chris Lytle at (-200) to win 1u
2u on Yoshihiro Akiyama at (-200) to win 1u
