Dream 16 may very well be the last major MMA card from FEG. The company is losing money hand over fist in MMA and their typically revenue-generating K-1 product is also feeling the squeeze of a general downturn in public interest in fightsport in Japan that has been going on for several years. When the time comes to pay the piper, there’s no doubt that MMA will be the first product on the chopping block for FEG, if it means they can salvage K-1 for the time being. This has been inevitable for a while, but fans should just hope that they get to see the quality fighters under contract with Dream in new promotions soon, an unlikely outcome given the fact that most Japanese fighters are poorly managed, or have managers with deep links to the promotions they fight for.
As far as final efforts go, this card is a step above Pride’s Kamikaze show, as it features many high-level fighters in relevant and exciting fights, instead of a bunch of tired retreads going through the motions.
Champ Gegard Mousasi (-1150) vs. Tatsuya Mizuno (+750)
Gegard Mousasi seems to be taking a page out of Josh Barnett’s playbook: get embarrassed in the United States (albeit by a one-sided loss and not a steroid test) and simply retreat to Japan to manhandle sub-par opposition and pick up paychecks. Mizuno is in for a short, rough night, as Mousasi will simple run roughshod on him, probably finishing it up with some super-nasty ground and pound. Gegard Mousasi by TKO.
Jason “Mayhem” Miller (-450) vs. Kazushi Sakuraba (+350)
Sakuraba shouldn’t be fighting and has nothing left physically. At least Mayhem probably won’t put too severe a beating on him, unless he’s decided to play a Ricardo Arona heel-style character. Jason Miller by decision.
Shinya Aoki (-345) vs. Marcus Aurelio (+280)
Aoki is too cagey to be much fun in fights like this. Grappler vs. grappler matchups are ideally full-contact submission grappling matches, but in reality they often become about which grappler has less horrible striking. Aoki showed us his gameplan in the Shaolin fight, and you can expect more of the same. Aurelio is probably just glad to get a paycheck and will predictable gas out well before the end of the fight. Not a lot of excitement to be had here, unless Aurelio gets wild and brains the always-fragile Aoki with a wild strike. Shinya Aoki by decision.
Satoshi Ishii (-180) vs. Ikuhisa “Minowaman” Minowa (+155)
Ishii’s presence on this card is indicative of how desperate a bid FEG is making for TV ratings with this card. Put together at the last moment, this fight is actually much less of a farce than the traditional “Minowaman” product. Unfortunately for Minowa, Ishii is not so incompetent that he will fall victim to the first leglock attempt thrown at him, with his black belt in judo and brown in BJJ. No, Minowa will be forced to look to his striking, which surprisingly took out perennial waste of athletic ability Sokoudjou. Ishii could very well lose this, despite being a better athlete and a much bigger man, as he has been incredibly slow to develop as an MMA fighter, not seeming to be much good at it naturally. However, Ishii has improved and shown more offensive firepower in his recent exhibition bout, even if some of it was not entirely legal, so he should be able to bully Minowa and beat him down. Satoshi Ishii by TKO.
Chase Beebe (+180) vs. Hiroyuki Takaya (-190)
Takaya is coming off the biggest win of his career, a truly “Streetfight Bancho” knockout of the always-tough Joachim Hansen. If Takaya can kill Hansen like that, he can certainly hurt Beebe if given the opportunity. Beebe isn’t likely to give him the chance if he can help it. Beebe has an excellent shot at winning this with takedowns and control, which has always been Takaya’s problem. Unfortunately the eventual victor will probably depend on the always-questionable judging in Dream, which is a total crapshoot, without an real identifiable biases or systematic errors. Takaya is unlikely to be able to do enough to stop Beebe’s takedowns, so Beebe will probably be the rightful victor, but with his string of extreme rough luck, there’s no telling. Chase Beebe by decision.
Cole Escovedo (+325) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (-350)
The growth of Michihiro Omigawa into a top-flight competitor is one of the more perplexing long-term stories in MMA, but it’s certainly a joy to watch him ply his peek-a-boo boxing style in MMA. Escovedo is an offensive powerhouse, but Omigawa has proven to be very defensively sound. Expect Omigawa to make it an entertaining fight with nip and tuck punching exchanges and rack up more offense. Omigawa is not a huge hitter, but Escovedo isn’t the most durable and tends to get hit by big shots so there might be a knockout. Michihiro Omigawa by decision.
Joachim Hansen (-350) vs. Hideo Tokoro (+300)
What a horrible, horrible style matchup for Tokoro. Tokoro is an action grappler, always leaping to finish a submission even at risk to his own health, especially given his weak chin. Hansen, on the other hand, is a talented grappler that isn’t likely to fall victim to a flying submission, his losses to Shinya Aoki aside. Hansen’s most salient talent for this bout is, of course, his preternatural striking power. Anything this guy hits, he destroys. It is basically guaranteed that at some point in this fight he will blow Tokoro’s brains out and turn him into a complete stretcherjob. The only question is what strike will polish off Tokoro. Joachim Hansen by KO.
Takeshi Inoue (-155) vs. Kazuyuki Miyata (+135)
An exciting tilt between two chronic underachievers! Inoue was a shooto posterboy, with his emo hair and cute stirrup pants, but he was pushed farther than his performance justified. Inoue has very little in-ring intelligence and is one of those fighters that will dominate a round with one tactic and then abandon that tactic entirely or otherwise completely halt his offensive output.
Miyata is a phenomenal athlete that just does not get MMA. He’s decently well-rounded, but he, a former olympic wrestler, also gets taken down when he shouldn’t and otherwise just can’t put it together. Against Inoue he should be able to get takedowns and control on the floor for a workmanlike decision, his specialty. Kazuyuki Miyata by decision.
Mitsuhiro Ishida (-450) vs. Akiyo “Wicky” Nishiura (+350)
This will be an exciting fight. Ishida is always hyper-active even if he doesn’t ever mount much offense except against fighters with no sub defense, and Wicky Akiyo always throws big punches and brings the violence whenever possible. With Ishida having been hammered, it’s clear he can be knocked out, but Nishiura is going to have to one-shot him, because he’s not about to stop an Ishida takedown like Melendez did. Nishiura will always be in the fight, because Ishida doesn’t rough guys up enough to really diminish their offensive capabilities. Ishida is a master at takedowns and control when he is on his game, and Wicky has never really shown much in the way of takedown defense. Mitsuhiro Ishida by decision.
Yusuke Kawaguchi vs. James Thompson
James Thompson is a punchline, but he’s also much, much bigger than Kawaguchi, who couldn’t get past Mariusz Pudzianowski. When Thompson has huge physical advantages and can just run riot, he can really maul smaller men, as he did on Hidehiko Yoshida and Don Frye. This fight will be a gong show, and really Thompson shouldn’t be fighting after all those KO’s, but he’ll probably win. Unless he gets crowned yet again and ends up flat on his face. James Thompson by TKO.
