WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan is yet another sterling offering from Zuffa’s junior product, chock-full of world-class fighters in under-appreciated divisions, which will surely produce more thrilling fights.
Champ Jose Aldo (-600) vs. Manny Gamburyan (+450) (for Featherweight title) 
Manny Gamburyan got starched by Hot Topic terrorizer Rob “Lords of South County” Emerson. He’s less physically disadvantaged at 145, but Jose Aldo is not going to be taken down and will run roughshod on him. Manny is tough and mentally strong, but that just means he’s going to take more of a beating, as he keeps pushing forward until his body shuts down from accumulated punishment. Jose Aldo by KO round 1.
Donald Cerrone (+135) vs. Jamie Varner (-160)
These two fighters are not good people. Jamie Varner is a whiner and perhaps one of the most gutless fighters to achieve his level of success, perpetually looking for a way out in the face of third-round adversity. Donald Cerrone is a sub-literate redneck bigot with a natural talent for fighting and no ability to apply himself to the mental aspects of the sport, let alone comport himself properly in the media. While trash talk is designed to make fans more invested in the fight, to have the fan choose a side and hate on the ‘villain’ and support his chosen fighter. The crap that has come out of these men’s mouths should have had the opposite effect on all right-thinking fans and made them wish harm on both fighters. This all just goes to show that you can be a great athlete despite not being a role model.
Cerrone is extremely tough and dangerous in all positions. He gets hit far too much, but he can always survive and throw back heavy leather. He can be taken down by a stiff breeze, but he has an active and dangerous guard. Varner’s takedowns are tough to stop and he has fundamentally sound boxing, with his greatest weakness being a combination of breaking down physically due to injury in fights and gassing out after the first two rounds, leading to horribly desperate performances in the third.
The fact that this is only a three-rounder is the big difference here, and a good argument for making elite fighters fight five rounds (or more) every time out, even if it’s not for a title. With Varner’s dragster gas tank lasting enough for him to coast through the fifteen minute mark, and Cerrone being a slow starter who can no longer bank on taking over the fight in the championship rounds, Cowboy is at a big disadvantage. Varner just has to land on Cerrone’s open-for-business chin, get takedowns and stay busy on top, and repeat that for the second round, then not get pounded in the third, and he’s won. Mix in some eye gouges and groin strikes and you have the likely way this fight will turn out. Jamie Varner by decision.
Miguel Torres (-430) vs. Charlie Valencia (+375)
Hey, remember when Miguel Torres was regarded as an unstoppable champion and a pound-for-pound great? Yeah, that was before fighting with no strategy or defense caught up to him twice in a row. If this man would just work his power jab consistently in fights instead of brawling like a madman, then he’d have much more success. Against Valencia, even if Torres goes nuts and just tries to slug it out, he’ll probably still win, but again, his massive reach advantage should enable him to completely abuse Valencia at range. Look for Torres to get back on the winning track here, but how he wins will really be instructive. Die-hard wolf cut fans should hope for a strategic and disciplined fight, because he’ll need those skills against the top of the division. Miguel Torres by TKO, round 2.
Chan Sung Jung (-300) vs. George Roop (+250)
Chan Sung Jung is a folk hero now because of his crazy brawl with Leonard Garcia, but he has more well-rounded skills than just a concrete block for a head and the ability to swim around the octagon with massive wild punches. Roop can’t handle Jung’s heat on the feet, and on the ground Jung can eat his lunch. Chan Sung Jung by submission, round 1.
Leonard Garcia (+165) vs. Mark Hominick (-185)
There’s not really any point in breaking down this fight. With Leonard Garcia, even if he loses, he still wins. Chang Sung Jung totally whipped this man’s ass and was absolutely burglarized by the judges. If you’re a betting man, take Garcia at plus money. That said, he should lose here. Hominick is technically solid kickboxer with similarly solid grappling chops. He should be able to pick Garcia apart on the feet and defend on the floor if Garcia looks for takedowns. Garcia slows down late in fights and leaves himself massively open to counters from jump street, so Hominick should be able to tune him up quite nicely with his slick boxing. One can only hope that Garcia’s green-power windmills don’t sway the judges to his side yet again, despite never landing and being countered hard. Mark Hominick by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Pablo Garza (+120) vs. Tiequan Zhang (-140)
Tiequan Zhang is a product of the bizarre propaganda-and-nationalism driven Chinese MMA scene, where Chinese nationals are fed hand-selected foreign scrubs to make Chinese fighters and traditional martial arts look awesome. He’s in the WEC because Zuffa wants to expand into China’s gambling capitals at some point. Watch this man get swept to guard from full mount and pretend he’s ready for anyone in the WEC.
Garza is not a standout prospect by any means, despite his shiny record, but WEC matchmakers may have erred in thinking Zhang has been fighting legitimately challenging opponents. Zhang will probably shock many with his level of ineptitude on the floor, harkening back to single-digit UFC events. That said, he has a completely awesome nickname in “The Mongolian Wolf”. Respect that. Pablo Garza by submission, round 1.
Garza was widely available at +140, and my twitter followers hear about it in timely fashion. He is a good bet, although Tiequan may truly be a transcendent talent and find a way to win this.
Mike Brown (-355) vs. Cole Province (+300)
Mike Brown has fallen from grace in a big way, first being mangled by threshing machine Jose Aldo and then being floored by Lilliput escapee Manny Gamburyan amid talk of lackadaisical training camps and distracting personal problems. Cole Province is a pretty good fighter, enough to hurt Brown if the former champ doesn’t take the fight seriously or doesn’t have his head in the game. Still, Brown should be able to have a W as well as a cupcake this time around. Mike Brown by TKO.
Chris Horodecki (-140) vs. Ed Ratcliff (+115)
Chris Horodecki is the former Wunderkind that has never quite lived up to the absolutely hyperbolic hype that surrounded him in a time when the entire Canadian MMA media was constantly on the prowl for “the next GSP”. Ed Ratcliff is a little nutty and loves throwing spinning karate kicks and the like. Ratcliff is the kind of athlete that can make those techniques work, but he really doesn’t have a lot else in his game. If Horodecki stands up with Ratcliff in the first round, then he could very well be posterized in hilarious fashion again by a spinning hook kick, but Ratcliff’s constant explosions of action wear him down greatly in later rounds. If Horodecki makes it out of the first round, either through sheer durability or takedowns and some mild ground and pound, then he has this in the bag. Ratcliff isn’t going to stop persistent takedowns and he doesn’t set up his kill-shots well on the feet, so Horodecki can probably just cruise. Chris Horodecki by decision.
Diego Nunes (-185) vs. Tyler Toner (+160)
Tyler Toner is a very, very dangerous striker. Nunes has shown good kicks, and he’s moved to Nova Uniao, so maybe he’ll suddenly become a massive face-melter like everyone else at that camp seems to be. This should be a very entertaining scrap, with kicks flying all over the place. It seems that fans are really sleeping on Toner because he hasn’t gotten much exposure, but his striking credentials are very, very dangerous. If he can avoid being handled on the ground by Nunes, he stands a very good chance of winning this on the feet. Tyler Toner by decision.
With Toner still available at +160, he’s still being undervalued.
Antonio Banuelos (-325) vs. Chad George (+275)
Antonio Banuelos isn’t a fantastic fighter, but he’s pretty darn good, with his close tilts with Scott Jorgensen standing proof positive of that. Chad George is not on that level, as his humiliating kicky-legs submission to Scott Jorgensen showed. George probably has a place in the WEC, but with roster space so limited, maybe not. Banuelos will work him over. Antonio Banuelos by decision.
Demetrious Johnson (-110) vs. Nick Pace (-115)
Pace is a highlight-reel striker. If you haven’t watched this, you owe it to yourself to do so. Demetrious is a good fighter, mostly due to a strong wrestling base, but he is absolutely tiny. You know a man is miniscule when he’s greatly outsized by Brad Pickett. His wrestling is greatly handicapped by his size disadvantage, which means that Pace will probably be able to spend enough time on his feet to either land something enormous and finish off Johnson or rack up the most effective offense and take a decision. Nick Pace by decision.
My plays:
1u on Tyler Toner at (+160) to win 1.6u
1u on Pablo Garza at (+140) to win 1.4u
I picked Hominick by decision, like you Nick, but after reading your breakdown I'm thinking Hominck by submission is likely.