UFC 122: Marquardt vs. Okami doesn’t have a lot of star power. This is typical for a European UFC card, but the card is even thinner than normal, and fan grumbling has been extremely loud. While the Q Score is low, the fights are well-matched and should produce some well-fought tilts.
Nate Marquardt (-210) vs. Yushin Okami (+180)
This fight has the potential to completely submarine any chances of a positive fan reaction to this card. All too often a sparkling undercard is forgotten in the wake of a stinker of a main event, as was the case for UFC 114. Yushin Okami is perhaps the most hesitant fighter in the game once his actual abilities when he goes on offense are taken into consideration, and Marquardt, for all the bashing he can do when he gets wild, can often completely go passive in response to a patient opponent.
Marquardt is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the game, with a very solid top game, good offensive wrestling, amazing physical tools, and striking with knockout power in a huge variety of strikes. He has a tendency to get overexcited and wild, leading to fouls, takedowns, and wasted energy, but his greatest weakness is that, despite being a good grappler with rock-solid submission defense, his guard is ineffective offensively and he gets stuck on his back.
Being stuck on your back is the nightmare scenario against Yushin Okami, who excels at keeping pressure on opponents once he gets a hold of them, and has all the skills to stay on top of Marquardt and ride out rounds. Okami has very pronounced weaknesses though. He often fights with absolutely no sense of urgency, essentially handing Rich Franklin two rounds in their fight, and not pursuing the fragile Mark Munoz when he was on the verge of a finish. Patience is a virtue, and conserving energy for takedown attempts when they are most likely to succeed is smart fighting, but Okami often only chooses the most perfect moments to try any sort of offense, hurting his reputation with fans and his chances of winning against opponents with strong offensive capabilities like Franklin or Marquardt.
The most salient weakness of Okami in this fight is that he seems to shy away when opponents put power on him. He reacts very badly to getting clipped, fleeing away and often leaving openings to get hit again. If Marquardt clips Okami and Okami goes all wobbly, the King of Pancrase is going to go absolutely nuts trying to bash him up, and will not stop until Okami forces him to. If Okami just cowers away against the fence, he’s going to keep getting hit until he’s stopped.
Okami has improved his standup and Marquardt can be hittable against lefties, so the most likely avenue to victory for Okami is if he clips Marquardt in one of the early rounds, which is probably the only way to inspire Okami to get aggressive early. If Okami gets on top to win a round early, he could pick up one of the later rounds with another takedown when Marquardt is more tired, and take a decision victory. The most likely outcome is Marquardt picking up at least the first two rounds with more aggressive and effective standup. Nate Marquardt by decision.
Jorge Rivera (-120) vs. Alessio Sakara (-105)
Jorge Rivera gets a lot of attention for being such a great story. He’s the journeyman that really got his act together and became a serious competitor again instead of just a tune-up for the elites. Sakara doesn’t have the same charisma, but he’s in much the same position, having done just enough to hang around in the UFC and earn that grizzled veteran status.
Rivera’s success comes from matchmaking that plays directly into his skill set. He is a tough guy with pretty good kickboxing that can really put the hurt on anyone he can hit. The absolute mauling he put on the ever-hittable Nate Quarry looks more like a criminal assault than a sportive contest. He’ll probably still fail when opponents can throw some slick grappling at him, but anyone that he can crack will regret giving him the chance.
Alessio has some really slick boxing, which he often chooses to abandon for a brawl when he gets excited. That works against him, since he isn’t the most durable fighter once he starts getting hit. Both men have a high rate of finishing or being finished inside the first round, spotlighting the cuthroat risk-taking styles that should make this fight a thrilling one.
This fight will go to whoever gets there first with the most offense. Both men are quite capable of finishing off the other, but Rivera has a real gift for laying the punishment on quickly. If he comes in aggressive, it should cause Sakara to wilt and get bashed up pretty quickly. Jorge Rivera by KO round 1.
Rivera is often a good fighter for wagering purposes because his successes or failures are so matchup-dependent. He’s not an elite fighter, but he can handle mid-level fighters vulnerable to his offense as if he were one. He won’t have significantly better success against a generic opponent than Sakara would, as reflected in the odds, but against Sakara specifically he is very likely to land some punches and pour on offense for a finish, making him a good bet at the near-pickem odds.
Dennis Siver (-135) vs. Andre Winner (+110)
It wouldn’t be the UFC in Germany without Dennis Siver. The stubby German is as solid a gatekeeper as one could ask for, durable and possessing a competent enough offensive arsenal to challenge good fighters. Winner will be looking to use Siver as a stepping stone out of the ranks of also-rans and onto a path to title contention.
Winner will have a reach advantage, which he can make good use of with his solidly technical boxing, but Siver is tough and can dish out some heavy punishment. Because of the reach disadvantage, Siver will probably have to make up the difference with his serviceable kicks.
Winner is the fighter with the greater upside here, but Siver is more well-established as a solid competitor. If Winner isn’t ready to challenge UFC-level fighters, Siver will control this fight. If Winner has made more improvements and is ready to take the next step, he will pick Siver apart at a distance and punish him for his aggression. At this point, Siver is just too solid a fighter not to be a (slight) favorite to win. Dennis Siver by decision.
Amir Sadollah (-315) vs. Peter Sobotta (+275)
Amir Sadollah looks to continue his climb back out of injury limbo, massive inactivity, and an uninspiring loss to the tough Dong-Hyun Kim with a beating of a man that’s only on this card because of his European heritage. Sadollah isn’t a world-beater and probably never will be, but he has enough offense to easily handle Sobotta. Amir Sadollah by decision.
Krzysztof Soszynski (-110) vs. Goran Reljic (-110)
It’s a testament to how little star power is on this card that a man coming off a decisive loss to Stephan Bonnar gets on the main card. Both of these men are immensely fallible. Soszynski is plodding and eminently hittable, although he’s tough and has a lot of raw physical power. Reljic is dangerous but plagued by injuries, which will be exacerbated by the disparity in size and power as he comes up from middleweight to face the hulking Sozynski.
This fight will probably feature a finish. Soszynski is a bruiser that crushes what he can get a hold of, and Reljic doesn’t have the defensive skills to simply stay outside and touch him up like a Brandon Vera. Similarly, Reljic has a wide variety of offensive techniques in his arsenal, and Soszynski is so open to getting hit that he let Stephan Bonnar beat him up twice, even if he did emerge victorious in one of those tilts. Reljic will also have an advantage on the ground, Soszynski’s ability to muscle out kimuras on bad grapplers aside.
If Soszynski fights smart and just tries to get Reljic down and put his muscle on him, he should probably be able to stay out of submissions and win the fight with a thorough beating. Soszynski isn’t really the type to fight smart, though, and will probably turn this into a real brawl, where he will certainly get beat up by Reljic’s long kicks and punches, but might come out victorious anyway. Either way, this is going to be an ugly fight. Krzysztof Soszynski by TKO round 2.
My Plays:
1.2u on Jorge Rivera at (-120) to win 1u
