UFC 123: Jackson vs. Machida UFC 123 has a rousing undercard. There is quite a lot of punching power on offer here, and there should be a ton of big knockouts. The fighters on the televised fights for Spike TV are scrapping for continued relevance, and Karo Parisyan continues his long strange journey on the world’s biggest stage.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Matt Brown (+130) vs. Brian Foster (-140)
Matt Brown is a tough guy with no quit in him, but he doesn’t have any skills to defeat truly elite fighters. He struggles when he is outwrestled and controlled and doesn’t really have the kind of power to crush guys in a couple shots before he gets taken down. Foster has that kind of big natural power to just nuke an opponent very rapidly. He still has work to do on the ground, but Brown is not a particularly dangerous grappler, especially when he is pinned down by a dominant wrestler.
Brown is a better striker on the feet, so Foster will look to use his wrestling to maintain control and deliver some serious punishment on the ground. Neither man is known for having a lot in the tank in the late rounds (interesting trivia: neither one of them has ever won a decision) so the bout may become a race to see who wears out second. If Foster doesn’t do a good amount of damage to Brown in the first two rounds, Brown may be able to threaten him in a sloppy third.
Overall this is a bad matchup for Brown, who will get outwrestled and cracked with some big power on the ground. Foster does have the pop to stop him, and that’s probably what will end up happening. Brian Foster by TKO round 2.
Mark Munoz (-145) vs. Aaron Simpson (+135)
Mark Munoz is a physical powerhouse with big natural punching power, but he has a magnet for fists in his head and he has not translated his scramble-centric wrestling game to MMA well at all. He cannot seem to avoid getting hit, and doesn’t have the durability to shrug off the big punches he always eats.
Aaron Simpson entered this sport too late to become a true great, but he does have good physical tools for the game. When he chooses to use it, his wrestling is effective in the cage, and he has huge natural power in his punches. His problems are a tendency to get into brawls that he loses and some questionable cardio. If he doesn’t crush Munoz quickly, he might end up losing this in the third.
As it is, Simpson’s wrestling is good enough to frustrate the desperate shots Munoz tries from range, and it’s only a matter of time before Simpson cracks Munoz with something big that puts him down. Munoz is a gamer and won’t give up, but he won’t be able to recover from the kind of heat Simpson can put on him. Aaron Simpson by TKO round 1.
I really like Simpson as an underdog here. Munoz’s chin and magnetic head are just a horrible combination against a guy that can compete with him in wrestling and put huge power on him.
PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)
Dennis Hallman (+135) vs. Karo Parisyan (-155)
Karo Parisyan is in a very bad place. It’s hard to imagine a worse career for someone with severe anxiety problems than fightsport. It is as if the entire scenario is concocted for the purpose of causing as much tension as possible. Karo will be under phenomenal pressure coming in to this fight. He has to fight to make a living, and screwing up this chance would be extremely costly. It seems inevitable that all of the pressures of this fight will wear on Karo, even if he still manages to enter the ring. Karo has also physically deteriorated while he’s battled these demons. He’s never been known for exceptional physical conditioning, but in his recent fights he’s looked like a diminished athlete.
Dennis Hallman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a career resurgence. Formerly little more than an interesting historical footnote because of his twin rapid submission wins over Matt Hughes, Hallman has created a role for himself in the UFC with some good performances.
Hallman will have trouble taking down a fresh, well-prepared Karo, but as Karo slows down and the fight goes on Hallman could find ways to employ his grappling to control and threaten the judoka. Hallman’s improved boxing should also be enough to tag Karo, who has always relied more on his toughness than his technique. Karo will probably just look unprepared and unfocused as Hallman works him over. Dennis Hallman by decision.
Karo’s troubles can be MMA bettors gain. Hallman was available at +195 at open, and remained available at +155 for a while. He should take this handily, since those lines reflect a Karo that no longer exists. I’d still take him at the +135 of today.
Edson Barboza (-500) vs. Mike Lullo (+375)
Edson Barboza is a real talent. He has excellent groundwork and is devastating on the feet. Lullo is a part-time fighter brought in on very short notice as a replacement. Barboza is going to put a big hurting on Lullo very quickly. Edson Barboza by KO round 1.
Paul Kelly (-160) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+145)
This is a bad matchup for O’Brien. Kelly isn’t about to set the world on fire, but he’s a very solid fighter that is quite defensively sound. O’Brien is a one-dimensional grappler that will just end up stuck underneath Kelly as Kelly works the lukewarm ground and pound that brought him to the big show in the first place. Paul Kelly by TKO round 2.
Nik Lentz (+170) vs. Tyson Griffin (-210)
Nik Lentz is being punished for putting on a boring fight. Tyson Griffin is the chosen executioner, as a win should also put him back on track after he was absolutely crushed by Takanori Gomi. This is well known. The UFC is not EliteXC though, so they are not depending on their preferred outcome coming to pass. If Lentz is able to defeat Griffin, having that name in his list of scalps gives him a relevance and importance that would counter-act the boring reputation to some degree.
Griffin is a much more dynamic fighter than Lentz, with solid enough wrestling to resist Lentz’s takedowns and a great scramble game to keep from getting trapped underneath Lentz for any period of time should he be taken down. Griffin will use his versatility to push a frenetic pace, create scrambles, and take control of the fight with his solid striking. Tyson Griffin by decision.
My plays:
1u on Dennis Hallman at (+155) to win 1.55u
1u on Aaron Simpson at (+135) to win 1.35u
