Before Americans stuff themselves with turkey, fight fans will be able to stuff themselves with quality MMA. UFC 123: Jackson vs. Machida is the antithesis of the hapless
UFC 122: Marquardt vs. Okami. The card has star power from top to bottom and is full of the kind of fights that create new conversations in a division. The card would be worth watching if only to see where the four former champions participating are headed, but the long list of prospects and developing fighters make it truly fantastic.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (+220) vs. Lyoto Machida (-260)
These men meet at a career crossroads. Machida, formerly an undefeated champion with an invincible mystique, was absolutely crushed in his last fight. Quinton Jackson is struggling to reclaim the fighting form that propelled him to the top of the division in 2007. If Rampage puts on the kind of fight that he did against Rashad, he’ll probably never again vie for the title, remaining a former champion become an also-ran. If Machida is knocked out again, he’ll be dismissed as a gimmick fighter that has been figured out, and his confidence may never return.
At his best, Lyoto Machida is a finely-tuned countering machine, trapping and parrying punches and delivering punishing counters. Opponents who become over-aggressive are quickly punished (Thiago Silva, Tito Ortiz at times) while those who become passive and play a waiting game (Rashad Evans) cannot compete with the master of such tactics and eventually find they have created an opening for Machida to exploit. At his worst, Quinton Jackson is eminently predictable, repeatedly throwing the shoulder roll left-right combination that he is so destructive with, only to have even extremely hittable opponents see it coming and avoid it. If that’s the Rampage that shows up, Machida will not get hit at all, and Jackson will get busted up badly by counters.
At his best, Quinton Jackson is a devastating striker that tempers his aggression and slugging power with sound defensive practices. In the best performances of his career, his first fight with Chuck Liddell and his epic tilt with Dan Henderson, he used his wrestling and punishing ground and pound to keep opponents off balance while picking crushing power shots on the feet to ensure he came out on top in every exchange. At his worst, Lyoto Machida is flat-footed, planting to counter, with his head straight up in the air because he’s not expecting a follow-up strike to the one he just defended.
The mental state for each fighter is a huge unknown at this point. Jackson has a well-earned reputation for being a basket case mentally, fighting far below his abilities, coming into a major fight woefully under prepared, and otherwise handicapping his own success as a professional athlete. Machida does not have that kind of history, but he has been placed in an extremely high-pressure situation right after an ego-crushing loss. It will be a significant feat to fight with the level of confidence in his skills that his style demands. Machida is a very focused and centered individual, so he will probably manage to right himself and fight up to his ability. Rampage has at this point firmly established that he will always be a flake, so he will probably just get frustrated with Machida and lunge around the cage trying to catch him with a telegraphed hook.
Rampage could emulate the strategy that Shogun worked so well. Machida is frequently unhittable, but when he chooses to engage he relies on his counter landing to stop his opponent’s offensive output. Machida is a solid and accurate puncher, so this is usually sufficient. Shogun, however, is extremely durable and basically walked through Machida’s punches to flurry and create a chaotic situation that Machida could not control with his distance or parrying. Rampage is one of the toughest guys in the division, but he usually doesn’t punch in great volume, looking for single shots or two-punch combinations, so he will have to make a concerted effort to swarm on Machida. Shogun is also a complete master of kicking, bringing a very versatile arsenal to the table, making Machida’s defensive work more challenging. Rampage is much more limited in his offense, only removing his feet from the ground to throw knees in the clinch at this point, and moving away from the straight punches he employed in fights earlier in his career in lieu of a focus on powerful hooks and overhands. With such a limited and predictable arsenal, Machida should be able to pick him apart.
Another weapon Rampage has abandoned is his ground and pound. He’s very naturally strong and a talented wrestler, and he can really wear on opponents when he gets a hold of them. Lyoto is very good in the clinch, but he’s also not as big as Jackson and could be out-muscled. This could lead to an interesting dynamic given Lyoto’s propensity for diving into the clinch with his trademark ducking punch. Lyoto is also a very slick grappler and wrestler, so Rampage will not be able to get much going on the floor.
If Rampage doesn’t bring anything more to this fight than he has to his other recent bouts, it will be a showpiece for Machida’s best skills and a brutal embarrassment for Jackson. Lyoto Machida by decision.
Matt Hughes (+145) vs. B.J. Penn (-165)
What to do with a high-profile fighter without a clear place in a division? The traditional answers are to create a grudge match or change their weight division. Here both strategies are being employed. It’s unclear where Hughes really belongs in the welterweight, but it’s been clear for a long time that BJ does not belong in the division at all. He can compete there, because he’s such a preternatural talent, but he’s at a definite size disadvantage. That size disadvantage compounds what has always been Penn’s downfall, a tendency to come into the cage with a body that isn’t prepared to live up to his talent. For a while it seemed like he was finally completely serious about his physical preparations, training with the controversial Marv Marinovich and putting on some of the most impressive fights of his career, but he soon tired of being ordered around and forced to endure hellish workouts. It’s no coincidence that his recent poor performances have coincided with BJ Penn taking the reins of his own training camps, as in the past.
Hughes is having physical problems of his own in the twilight of his career. He is still as strong as a mule, but his shot is less explosive and his reactions are slower. Despite rattling off three straight victories, Hughes has looked like a classic MMA fighter ready for the “masters” division instead of fighting young guns like Thiago Alves. He is still making technical improvements, but he is simply slowing down.
Hughes has made improvements in his boxing, but he will still be massively outclassed by Penn on the feet. Even if Penn neglects to use his excellent jab, an extremely effective tool he all but abandoned against Edgar, he will still pick Hughes apart. BJ is also still worlds better than Hughes on the ground, and a good enough wrestler that it will be a real struggle for Hughes to take it there.
In their last meeting, Hughes dropped the first two rounds to Penn, then finished a very gassed and possibly injured Penn for the first time in the Hawaiians career. It’s very unlikely that Hughes gets another finish on Penn, since Hughes is not a big hitter from any position, and BJ is incredibly durable and basically unsubmittable. Hughes is not going to be able to put the kind of pressure on Penn that GSP was able to, and Hughes only has three rounds to work with. Even a tired Penn can survive a third round after winning the first two.
On the other hand, Penn can definitely finish Hughes at any point in the fight. Penn has power in his hands and Hughes can definitely be knocked out, and, with his ability to take the back and stay there, Penn can threaten any grappler in the division with submissions, even one as skilled as Hughes. The late-career surge of Matt Hughes comes to a crashing halt here. BJ Penn by TKO round 1.
Joe Lauzon (+200) vs. George Sotiropoulos (-225)
This is a terrible matchup for Lauzon. Sotiropoulos is better than him wherever the fight takes place and has more staying power to boot. Lauzon is a guy that can threaten top-flight opponents with his sheer aggression and versatility, but comes up lacking when a fight settles down and isn’t a chaotic brawl. Sotiropoulos should be able to take Lauzon apart on the feet as Joe tries to flail around with haymakers, and he’s a better grappler, who will escape and take dominant position if Lauzon tries to dive into a leglock, in his traditional risk-taking style.
When Lauzon gets dominated, as he will in this fight, he crumbles and gets finished. Sotiropoulos will wear on him until he gets beaten down for a TKO or gives up position and gets choked. George Sotiropoulos by submission, round 2.
Tim Boetsch (+450) vs. Phil Davis (-580)
Time Boetsch is a massive underdog in this fight, and rightfully so. Boetsch isn’t a particular standout in any respect, but he’s a solid all-rounder with a natural knack for the fight game and some good physical tools. Unfortunately he’s running into a supreme athlete that has already developed far more technical acumen than Boetsch.
This is a good fight for Davis to get much needed experience. Boetsch is greatly outgunned, but he’s durable and dangerous with both strikes and submissions. If Davis screws up, he could actually lose this and give Boetsch a huge boost. He’ll have to take some risks and get aggressive to actually finish Boetsch, or run a very tight control game to go the full three rounds without any scares. Davis should be able to do either of these things. Phil Davis by submission round 2.
Maiquel Falcao (+210) vs. Gerald Harris (-260)
Maiquel Falcao has a gaudy record, but it has come against regional competition in Brazil. He has never fought as solid an international competitor as Harris has become. It’s always a big challenge for a guy used to quickly dominating lower-level opposition to fight someone that doesn’t collapse quickly and just take a beating. Falcao certainly has big power, and if Harris gets clipped early, the Chute Boxe product will be in his element and lay down a beating. Harris is too technically sound a boxer for that to be very likely though, and he will be able to use that and his wrestling to wear down Falcao and beat him up in the later rounds. Gerald Harris by TKO round 2.
