Fight Picks and Predictions for The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

By Nicholas Bailey

It’s time yet again for the weakest of UFC’s offerings, a TUF finale. Headlined by irrelevant fighters, either of which should be cut after a loss (although Bonnar has perpetual immunity) The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck Finale actually features a few quality matchups that would be far more deserving headliners. TUF cards do bring fun surprises from the contestants themselves, as the familiarity a television has with them can be turned on its head in the time between the television cameras stop rolling and the time they finally step into the cage for the show finale. A re-dedication to full-time training, training with a top-level camp for the first time, and efforts to shore up weaknesses that may have been exposed for the first time can bring about enormous changes in a fighter, as opposed to the typical incremental changes seen in UFC combatants.


Stephan Bonnar (-210) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+185)

It really seemed Bonnar was done for as a UFC fighter after managing the feat of losing to a paleolithic Mark Coleman, but the vowel-hating Krzysztof Soszynski turned out to also hate defense and gameplanning, allowing Bonnar to pick up a desperately needed win (and a loss in an exciting fight) which was apparently enough to earn him the headlining spot on this card.

It’s unclear what Pokrajac did to merit his position here, aside from being someone Bonnar could actually beat. It’s an unusual achievement to make the leaden Vladimir Matyushenko look like an offensive powerhouse, but that’s the kind of qualification that usually moves one down the figurative ladder.

Bonnar, when he’s on his game, is best when he’s grappling, but typically chooses to engage in silly brawls. He really hasn’t shown much ability to finish opponents in these dust-ups, but continues to provoke slugfests like he’s a prime Wanderlei Silva. He does have a curious durability though; while he cannot seem to avoid injuring himself in between fights, once he steps into the ring it’s hard to make him leave before the final bell. He’s a big, tough guy that’s not afraid to throw down, and that’s probably going to be more than enough to win a really ugly fight over Pokrajec. Stephan Bonnar by decision.

Jonathan Brookins (-250) vs. Michael Johnson (+215) (“TUF 12” championship)

Not to belabor the point, but predicting the outcome when a fighter is fresh out of the TUF house is bordering on voodoo. Even a fighter like George Sotiropolous, who had a very long career of professional training and international competition before the show, changed enormously after “graduating” and coming to the UFC proper. Brookins has shown the wrestling needed to survive at the top level, but he’s also demonstrated enormous gaps in his defense on the feet. If those gaps are still there, and Johnson can put power on him, Brookins could be derailed really quickly. If not, he should cruise to a decision here. Jonathan Brookins by decision.

Kendall Grove (+300) vs. Demian Maia (-350)

Kendall Grove is one of the greatest arguments for the necessity of toughness in MMA. In boxing a fighter can develop skills to fight around and protect a weak chin, but in the controlled chaos of an MMA fight, it’s inevitable that a fighter gets cracked at some point. Grove seems inconsistent to many casual observers, but his record actually makes complete sense when considered more carefully. He has the skills and tools of a high-level competitor, but such poor durability that even sub-par fighters have a good chance of beating him if they have a bit of punching power.

Demian Maia has never been accused of being a knockout artist. He has improved his striking and is not completely inept on the feet, but this fight is much more interesting because he hasn’t shown the capability to exploit Grove’s glaring weakness. Grove is a much more dangerous striker, with reach and some power in his strikes, especially his knees in the clinch. If Maia can’t control where this fight takes place, his durability, which some have questioned since Maruqardt made him into a pinata, will be sorely tested.

Grove is a good grappler, but Maia is clearly on another level, and has transitioned his game to MMA very well. This fight will come down to Maia’s ability to close the distance and put Grove on the floor. Grove, despite his cartoonish height, subscribes to the Stefan Struve school of striking, robbing himself of his reach advantage and fighting close in to opponents. Once Maia gets a hold of him, things get a little more dicey. Grove doesn’t come from a wrestling background, and he doesn’t have bulging muscles on top of muscles, but he does seem to be able to stop weaker takedown attempts. Maia will need to really bring solid takedowns to bear if he’s going to get him down.

Maia has shown the ability to outwrestle and force the ground game on most opponents, and Grove spent most of his fight with solid-but-unspectacular Ricardo Almeida on his back. Maia should be able to give him a similar treatment, and certainly has the chops to submit him, given that he can make grappling in MMA look like an instructional video filmed with a willing partner. Demian Maia by decision.

Rick Story (+175) vs. Johny Hendricks (-200)

Fights between wrestlers go one of two ways. Either they completely abandon wrestling altogether and just engage in a sloppy slugfest, or one fighter asserts himself as the dominant wrestler and completely dominates an opponent unused to being taken down and fighting off his back. Johny Hendricks has quietly become one of the more successful wrestling converts in the UFC. Story hasn’t achieved the same level of success, but has the wrestling to keep things close. This is a very evenly-matched fight, but could end in spectacular fashion, given the crushing beatdown Hendricks put on Brenneman and Story’s punching power. Hendricks is the most complete, mature fighter at this point in his career, and does have some submission chops, with Story having shown some weakness in that area in the past. This will be a close, competitive fight, giving each man a chance to distinguish himself, but Hendricks is just fulfilling more of his potential at this point. Johny Hendricks by decision.

Leonard Garcia (-170) vs. Nam Phan (+145)

Leonard Garcia is bringing his very special brand of windmilling and failing upwards back to the UFC. While it’s a lot of fun to joke about how Garcia provides green power and it’s always trouble to think about how clearly he points out the failings of modern MMA judging, this is a fight he should win.

Nam Phan is a pretty good fighter, with slick grappling and a willingness to attack the body that excite people who love rib-roasters. He also has a problem with power punchers, namely that he tends to leave himself open and doesn’t have the kind of solid-steel skull that makes up for letting yourself get punched in the head. If Garcia can land on anyone, it’ll be someone like Phan. In the end, Phan will simply give Leonard too many opportunities to crack him with power shots, and will end up taking one too many and going down. Leonard Garcia by TKO round 2.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Ian Loveland (+215) vs. Tyler Toner (-270)

Toner isn’t a great fighter yet, but he is a pretty great kickboxer. Ian Loveland can crack on the feet, but he’s been feasting on weaker opposition and has some big weaknesses on the ground. Toner isn’t the man to exploit someone’s submission defense, but he should be able to out-class Loveland. Tyler Toner by TKO round 2.

Pablo Garza (+155) vs. Fredson Paixao (-165)

Pablo Garza has gone from failing to make it into the TUF house to losing by submission to a very limited Chinese import to this, being matched up against a truly world-class jiu-jitsu specialist that has fought competitively against some of the best in the world. He’s in way over his head here, but it should give Paixao an opportunity to look good. Fredson Paixao by submission, round 1.