It’s great to see the smaller guys get some UFC shine as the WEC roster continues to be merged into Zuffa’s promotion for the big boys. This undercard is full of talented smaller fighters trying to make a splash in intensely competitive divisions, which should produce thrilling and meaningful fights. Every UFC fight now carries the additional weight of Zuffa’s continued belt-tightening leading to less and less leeway for fighters without big names, meaning almost everyone on the undercard is in danger of losing their job if they don’t perform, further increasing the drama of the whole show.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Luiz Cane (-175) vs. Eliot Marshall (+160)
Cane’s weakness is that he seems unable to avoid punches from talented left-handed strikers. Marshall’s weakness is that his style is horribly boring and completely unmarketable. Marshall is going to look to tie Cane up and push him into the cage, with an eye to holding him there for all three rounds. The problem is that Cane is a vicious striker and will knee Marshall’s guts out in the clinch. Marshall won’t be able to shut down Cane’s offense, and will pay the price. Luiz Cane by TKO round 2.
Edson Barboza (-285) vs. Anthony Njokuani (+240)
This fight will likely be a joy to watch, with lethal, technical striking on display. Njokuani, for all his technical foibles and negative attitude towards the ground game, can really bring some pure Muay Thai destruction, as he showed when he wrecked Edward Faaloloto with an instructional-perfect inline elbow. Barboza is a phenom and strongly favored to win this fight, but if it stays on the feet Njokuani will be very dangerous for him.
Barboza could take Njokuani apart with leg kicks before punching him out, but he also has the ground chops to submit the deficient Njokuani. Either of these men can finish a fight before an opponent has a chance to adjust his strategy, so expect some sudden violence. Edson Barboza by TKO round 1.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
Ricardo Almeida (-170) vs. Mike Pyle (+145)
Almeida is fading and Pyle is holding steady as a high-level veteran. Fortunately for Almeida, he is a superior wrestler, which will enable him to threaten Pyle positionally. Pyle is a superior striker and has a very active guard. It will be hard for either to submit the other, but Pyle is more aggressive and might be able to find the same kind of success Matt Hughes did.
Overall Pyle just has more going for him and is more upwardly mobile in his career. He faces a tough stylistic matchup in Almeida, but if he pushes hard he should be able to snatch the victory. Mike Pyle by decision.
Kurt Pellegrino (+135) vs. Gleison Tibau (-150)
Pellegrino is solid. He’s just tough to deal with in any area. Tibau is pretty good on the feet, although Pellegrino is better. This fight is going to come down to how many takedowns of Tibau Pellegrino can stop. If Tibau can reliably get on top of Kurt, the ATT product is going to lay there and win a decision. If Pellegrino can make him work, Tibau is going to tire out and fall apart, getting busted up by Kurt’s punches.
Pellegrino’s performances often come down to mental factors, with Kurt either losing focus in the ring and giving his opponent opportunities they should not have, or coming in focused and aggressive and running over opponents. It remains to be seen how Pellegrino will perform against Tibau. Kurt Pellegrino by TKO round 3.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Joseph Benavidez (-400) vs. Ian Loveland (+325)
This will be a good test of Benavidez’s wrestling. Loveland is pretty dangerous on the feet, and not a bad wrestler. Benavidez probably doesn’t want to tangle with his striking, especially given the reach disadvantage he’d be at, so he’s going to have to come in from a ways out with minimally set-up takedowns.
Once Benavidez gets the fight to the mat, he’ll be able to run game on Loveland, but the initial takedowns will prove a challenge, and Loveland’s size will give Joseph trouble wherever the fight goes. With Benavidez being so aggressive lately with his submissions, he will probably be able to seal the deal if he can create an opening early in the fight. Otherwise he might be in for a real threat as Loveland’s size wears on him. Joseph Benavidez by submission, round 1.
Raphael Assuncao (+130) vs. Erik Koch (-160)
Assuncao has simply failed to live up to his hype against high-level opponents. Koch hasn’t faced the same level of opposition, but he also seems to be growing and improving from fight to fight, where Assuncao has merely remained solid in all aspects of the fight game. That’s hardly an indictment of Assuncao’s talent, but that might not be enough to overcome someone with the offensive chops of Koch. Look for Koch to assert himself more and more in the fight, with striking from all positions, until the decision becomes a complete blowout. Erik Koch by decision.
Nick Catone (-200) vs. Costantinos Philippou (+175)
Catone by wrestling. Philippou is a super-late replacement and will get eaten alive late in the fight. Nick Catone by decision.
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