The upcoming Strikeforce: Business As Usual* card is an important one for the history of the promotion, as well as the sport. Yet this event, headlined by a welterweight title fight between Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley, has been scrutinized by some, who believe that the other title fight, contested by Gilbert Melendez and Tatsuya Kawajiri, should be the main event. Initially I was inclined to agree, but upon further analysis I’m not so sure. I know that generally speaking, when all things are equal, the higher weight division is going to get top billing. But that begs the question: Are all things equal?
On a superficial level, it’s easy to note that between champions Nick Diaz and Gilbert Melendez, Diaz is the bigger Strikeforce star. Furthermore, Kawajiri is a newcomer to Strikeforce, while Daley made a thunderous debut. But should those factors alone dictate the billing order? Digging deeper, who are the more accomplished pair of fighters, and which fight is more relevant to its division?
Gilbert Melendez is an indisputable Top 5 lightweight, arguably the #1 fighter at 155 pounds. Kawajiri for a long time held a top 10 lightweight spot, but has recently fallen out of those rankings. Paul Daley earned a spot in the welterweight Top 10 with his win over Martin Kampmann. However Diaz is someone whose fans have long argued should be ranked in the division’s top 10, but just hasn’t had the opportunity to fight top 10 competition. I can definitely see why Strikeforce in the past would not have wanted to acknowledge the lack of established competition Diaz has faced, but this opponent is the most highly-regarded of Diaz’ recent challengers, and with a win, he cements his place in the Top 10 at welterweight, though certainly not among the division’s elite. Melendez has more at stake, as a win keeps the conversation open as to whether Melendez, Edgar, Maynard, or Eddie Alvarez is the lightweight division’s true #1, while a loss renders him a pretender to that lofty throne. It’s close, but I’ll give Melendez-Kawajiri the nod.
What about entertainment value? I can’t imagine that Diaz vs. Daley could be anything but highly entertaining. Both fighters are going to want to trade, and neither will dance around too long before getting in the other’s face. And if by some freak chance Diaz decides to fight smart and take Daley down, Diaz is always a fun grappler to watch. A finish is very likely, and if the fight does go 25 minutes, it’s likely to be a war.
Melendez has put on some great fights, but he has also shown himself to be someone who is willing to eschew fighting for the finish to win on points, avoiding a grappling match when it doesn’t serve his interests. This is a smart strategy, particularly for a defending champion, but it has stoked the ire of finish fetishists and bloodthirsty fans alike. Kawajiri has also put on his share of “Fight of the Year” caliber fights. But when he gets on top of an opponent, which has long been his strong suit, his game is all about control. So all things considered, Melendez vs. Kawajiri definitely has the potential to leave fans wanting in a way that Diaz vs. Daley does not.
Another important consideration is that Melendez vs. Kawajiri has already happened, and based on both fighters’ successes and failings since then, is there any reason to think that Melendez won’t have his hand raised again? When they fought last time Kawajiri was relentless with the takedowns, but Melendez was able to counter with his trademark “hula hoop” technique. Though Melendez subsequently lost to Mitsuhiro Ishida, who demonstrated an even greater ability to control Melendez, he avenged that loss in emphatic fashion, before avenging his only other defeat. Kawajiri, though coming off a win, faltered in his previous attempt to capture gold, tasting defeat at the hands of Shinya Aoki, a man that Melendez dominated.
This is not to say Melendez vs. Kawajiri isn’t intriguing. Anything can happen when two fighters step into the cage. But all things considered, Diaz vs. Daley is the most appropriate main event for the inaugural Strikeforce event under the Zuffa banner, offering high-stakes, high-energy, high-intensity violence, and the potential for genuine “Holy Shit” moments. And in the eyes of the new management, that is “business as usual.”
*Not the actual name of the show.
