The first major Strikeforce event under Zuffa management features two crackling title fights topping off some less meaningful popcorn fights. It will be interesting to see the Strikeforce promotion finally let its fighters take off the training wheels and throw elbow strikes like big boys, especially with the inherent viciousness that men like Daley and Kawajiri can bring to that weapon.
Champ Nick Diaz (-220) vs. Paul Daley (+185) (for welterweight title) 
Nick Diaz could lose this fight. He probably won’t, but it’s important to remember that it’s possible. Diaz has a great chin, but he has gone down under heavy fire before, and been stopped. He relies on volume to protect him from counterfire, since he doesn’t really move a lot to avoid strikes. That’s a dangerous recipe against someone with the incredible power of Daley.
Diaz will be the much longer fighter, but he doesn’t fight at the end of his range, working a stiff jab and staying on his bicycle. He comes forward and throws slapping punches somewhat sidearm, which will rob him of some of his height and reach advantage. Daley was shut down by the reach of Nick Thompson and struggled with the taller Jorge Masvidal, so its quite possible to see him incapable of putting anything together against Diaz.
Even if Daley does tag Diaz, it’s likely the Stockton native would simply sit down and try to pull him into guard. Daley has never been the most composed and in-control fighter, so it is very likely he would flail futilely and give Diaz the chance to recover and tie him up. Unless Daley can put Diaz spark out on the feet, it’s going to be tough for him to justify chasing Diaz to the floor, given the severe disadvantage Daley faces there.
Diaz is a seriously dangerous submission fighter, and Daley is still little more than a one-dimensional kickboxer. If Diaz can get past Daley’s speed and muscle to put him on his back, a submission is not far off.
Daley is dangerous, but Diaz simply has too many tools and too many advantages. He can wear Daley down and TKO him, he can get aggressive and really punch him up, or he can take him down and tap him out. This fight is not likely going to go to decision. Nick Diaz by TKO round 3.
Champ Gilbert Melendez (-220) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (+205) (for lightweight title) 
This is a fantstic rematch. Melendez and Kawajiri have interestingly opposed styles, and it has been more than four years since their first fight, with each man improving by leaps and bounds in the interim. Melendez has shored up his wrestling and become a more focused and disciplined fighter, and Kawajiri has simply tightened up every aspect of his game. Both men have made great improvements in the striking department, even if Kawajiri got busted up in K-1.
Both men are hard-charging hybrid wrestlers with solid chins and heavy hands. This fight is going to be a serious war, no matter who wins. Neither man is going to fold up under pressure, so even a one-sided fight is likely to go all five rounds. Melendez has looked a little sharper recently, but Kawajiri has long been under-appreciated and it would be nice to see him get some shine. Melendez also has to be slightly favored because of his experience fighting in the United States, with travel being something that can really affect Japanese fighters that have never had to travel for a fight before. The other big X factor in this fight is the fact that they can use elbows, something that should naturally fit into each man’s style. Gilbert Melendez by decision.
Kawajiri is probably going to lose this, but +205 is really undervaluing his skills. It would not be shocking at all if he could reliably get Melendez down and elbow him up or take his back, or even touch him up on the feet. This is going to be a close fight, so the randomness of judging works in Kawajiri’s favor as well.
Keith Jardine (+400) vs. Gegard Mousasi (-400)
What happened to Keith Jardine? At one point he was very close to fighting for a UFC title, but now he’s been crushing scrubs trying to earn his way back into a big show, and in this case taking a disadvantageous fight as a very late replacement as a traditional journeyman. Mousasi is going to crack him early and put him out. Jardine’s only real chance here is to come out with the gameplan of outwrestling Mousasi and working top control, but that’s never been Keith’s style. Mousasi is simply too sharp a striker not to floor somebody with the poor footwork and glaring vulnerabilities Jardine has. Gegard Mousasi by KO round 1.
Shinya Aoki (-225) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (+190)
Beerbohm usually relies on his grappling to get by, but against Aoki he’ll be in well over his head. Beerbohm isn’t a lights-out striker, but it doesn’t take much to put Aoki out of comission, so “Fancy Pants” still has a decent shot at this fight, especially with elbows allowed. Like any Aoki fight, this could end specacularly at any moment, either with a wild submission or humiliating knockout, but that is predicated on the fight moving beyond a clinch against the cage. Aoki is going to have to tie Beerbohm up, something he is very capable of doing, but it’s not clear if he’ll be able to trip “Fancy Pants” to the floor or take his back standing. Aoki should be able to keep Beerbohm on the defensive, and pick up rounds for a decision at the very least. Shinya Aoki by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Robert Peralta (+250) vs. Hiroyuki Takaya (-280)
This fight should be a hidden gem. Takaya is a serious slugger, and Peralta will be happy to indulge him in that. Takaya will probably run over him, but this fight is notable for getting Takaya back into the US market after his brief stint in the WEC. Hiroyuki Takaya by TKO round 1.
My Plays:
1u on Tatsuya Kawajiri at (+205) to win 2.05u
