October 29th is when the UFC will have two fights that have the potential to shake up the welterweight division. At UFC 137, Georges St. Pierre will defend his title against Carlos Condit, while BJ Penn will fight Nick Diaz. I expect the title fight to be rather interesting, but I’m looking forward to Penn versus Diaz even more.
BJ Penn and Nick Diaz are two very good welterweights who find themselves in peculiar positions going into this fight. Penn is a two-division champion and will be a guaranteed Hall of Famer whenever he decides to retire. Of course, that is one of the main questions surrounding this bout, because as of late it has seemed like that time may be closer than many expected. When the draw with Jon Fitch occurred, Penn looked utterly dejected and distraught during the post-fight press conference. When the rematch fell through due to injury, Penn wanted nothing but fights against big names in the sport. As GSP sits atop the weight class, we know that Penn is a long way away from a title shot, as it would be a third fight against the Canadian who has beaten him twice. As UFC 137 nears, Penn finds himself in the kind of purgatory that has captured the likes of Fitch. I believe that if Penn loses this bout, he will retire and walk away from the sport.
Diaz, on the other hand, finds himself in an even tougher position. He looked like a dominating force while sitting atop the Strikeforce welterweight division. Fans had clamored for him to fight St. Pierre, and the opportunity presented itself…until Diaz decided not to show up to press conferences for this event. UFC executives were forced to react, and snatched him out of the main event bout, giving the title fight to Condit instead. The outspoken Stockton, California native now finds himself staring across from Penn in the co-main event. I believe this fight is a must-win for Diaz, because if he loses, who’s to say that the UFC will not cut him due to his misbehavior, as they have done before?
Overall, it is terribly hard to determine who will come out ahead of this fight. Both competitors have strong skills on the feet and on the mat. When standing, Diaz could use his range to pressure Penn into looking for the takedown. Once on the mat, however, Penn, the better grappler, should be able to display the talents that earned him the notable achievement of being the first non-Brazilian to win the BJJ World Championships. This bout will most likely go the full fifteen minutes, with exciting exchanges on the feet, and expert-level grappling while on the mat. Once everything is over, look for Penn to win by unanimous decision.
BJ Penn and Nick Diaz may not be fighting for a championship at UFC 137, but this bout holds important implications for not only the welterweight title picture, but for the directions of both fighters’ careers.
