Why I Think You’re An Idiot After UFC 141

By Eric Kamander

I missed the train today so I had a little extra time to read my twitter feed and listen to callers expound on their insights on my regular assortment of MMA podcasts.

I was going to respond with some tweets. My responses to the ideas being presented soon turned into something I thought I might post on my Facebook fan page and before I knew it, you idiots had given me so much material I had a full-out blog post. So here you go; 2012 has just begun and I already think you’re a bunch of idiots. Good going.

Gustafsson
People think Gustafsson will be able to use his reach to beat Jon Jones. I’ll tell you this: Gustafsson’s reach will actually prove to be a disservice against Jones, much like Cerrone‘s reach was a disservice against Diaz.

Reach can be a huge advantage in a fight if you know how to use it, but fighters who have the luxury of relying on that reach are rarely forced to learn how to get in and out against a longer fighter. We saw this play out in the first round of Machida/Jones, and this is a big reason I like Edgar over Diaz.

Diaz and Cerrone
People are amazed at Diaz‘s improvement. Since I picked Diaz to win I can sit on my high horse and say “I told you so.”

But I’m still amazed, perhaps naively so, at people’s reactions. As Raphael touched on in his piece, winning streaks don’t mean a thing. Yes Cerrone was on a nice win streak, and Diaz had lost quite a few of his last few fights, but to base so much of your analysis on those factors is the epitome of ignoring all context and nuance. Here are some words of wisdom: look at their opponents, and how they fared in those fights.

Upon his arrival to the UFC, Cerrone beat on a bunch of dudes, but who were they? His KO of Charles Oliveira was probably the most significant. Why was Cerrone so hyped? Because people too often make the mistake of ignoring how easy it is to look super impressive against lesser competition.

Meanwhile, why do people think Diaz was so improved? When we last saw him in the LW division he lost a close split decision to Gray Maynard – the #2 lightweight in the world!

Prior to that, Diaz lost a controversial split decision to Clay Guida. We didn’t know it at the time, but Guida is a top contender himself. And when Diaz went up to welterweight he held his own against some significant fighters in that division.

While Diaz might get the wins to fight for the title — a fight that I don’t see him winning — whether he gets there largely depends on who he fights. I still see him losing to the same guys he lost to before.

Hendricks, Fitch, and the welterweight division
Fitch‘s loss to Hendricks shows just how chaotic MMA can be. If ever there was a perennial contender, it was Fitch. A consensus #2 welterweight for years. But his loss begs for a new analysis of his status. A major factor in his rank was his defeat of Thiago Alves. But the welterweight division has undergone some drastic changes in a short time frame. Alves lost to Story, who lost to Kampmann as well as Brenneman, who himself has lost to both Hendricks and Johnson.

Where does this place Fitch? I think Fitch definitely has the ability to beat a lot of these guys a lot of the time, but until he does, he belongs below them in any performance-based ranking system.

Does this make Dana White and the UFC brass happy? Maybe. I’m not going to speculate, and I don’t really care.

Overeem, Lesnar, and the heavyweight division
I picked Lesnar to beat Overeem in what I saw as a pick em fight due to all the question marks surrounding both fighters.

The way the fight played out makes me think Lesnar was really conscious of nursing his body. If Overeem had been more tentative, things could have gone very differently.

So is Overeem the baddest man on the planet? Well certainly not until he defeats Junior dos Santos. That fight will be interesting and likely to be highly entertaining due to their styles. However, I can see both guys getting hurt and becoming reluctant to engage fully.

What will we learn after Overeem faces dos Santos? Neither will be immediately as dominant at the top as Jon Jones is at light heavyweight. We’ll still have a few guys circling the top of the division, with fans claiming that one of them is the baddest man on the planet.

UFC in 2012
How will UFC 141 fare in pay per views, and how will UFC fare financially in 2012? I really couldn’t care less.

Click here to rate all the fights from UFC 141.