While fans, fighters, and pundits alike are still arguing over the results of the main event, the fact still stands that the main event of UFC 143 was the exciting affair that we all wanted to see. Carlos Condit’s well-crafted gameplan was enough to halt the constant pressure from Nick Diaz and earn him the UFC interim welterweight title. And as the MMA world settles down, questions will begin to arise about the next fights on the horizon for each of the night’s winners and important personalities. Here are a few that would spark the MMA community’s interest:
(For the sake of this piece, I will avoid talking about the impending Condit vs. Georges St. Pierre matchup, as it is certain that these two individuals are on track to face each other.)
Nick Diaz vs. Jon Fitch
While I don’t normally focus on fighters that have lost during an event, this matchup immediately sparks my interest. Of course, the first question is whether Diaz is serious about the retirement talk that he blurted out after the close decision was announced. If the UFC could somehow entice him back into the cage, I would love for them to make this matchup against Jon Fitch happen.
This would be a matchup of Diaz’s constant pressure against Fitch’s ability to slow down the pace of a fight. You can expect to see Diaz use the same strategy that he always uses, where he comes forward in an attempt to overwhelm his opponent with multiple strikes. Diaz would be the better striker of the two, and would be able to outland Fitch every moment that the fight was on the feet.
But what would be at question is whether Diaz could avoid Fitch’s attempts to drag him to the canvas and grind his way through Diaz’s guard. While I would expect Fitch to be able to score the takedowns he needed, on the ground he would have to contend with Diaz using a very active guard game. Fitch would have to find a way to maintain pressure without getting caught in any of the numerous submission attempts that would come his way.
Fitch and Diaz are two of the best welterweights in the world, and coming off losses, both would need a big win to stay relevant in 2012. By going through the other, the winner would have a strong chance of remaining in the title hunt. And I believe that Diaz would be able to outpoint Fitch en route to a unanimous decision.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Frank Mir
One of the more interesting aspects of Fabricio Werdum’s mixed martial arts game is his ability to use submissions so effectively. While many hope to see the big guys knock each other out, there’s something about a heavyweight that can lock on a triangle or armbar at a moment’s notice. Because of that, I would love to see him matched against another heavyweight submission specialist in Frank Mir.
With his win Werdum has placed himself on the short list of title contenders in the UFC heavyweight division. Mir has been on this list for years, and with a three-fight win streak, looks poised to make another title run in 2012.
On the mat Werdum would be the superior fighter. Yes, we’ve all seen Mir snap limbs over the years, but he has never faced an individual with the grappling abilities that Werdum possesses. If Mir were to find himself on his back, he would have a hard time keeping Werdum from passing his guard and moving into a dominating position. Even if Mir was on top one wonders how well he would be able to defend against the constant submission attempts that would be coming his way.
On the feet, however, this would be a very interesting fight. Both Mir and Werdum have shown a growing interest in letting their hands go, and attemping to damage their opponents that way. Mir would be better equipped to not only score with strikes on the feet, but rattle Werdum as he lands. Werdum would be able to answer, but I believe he would do so with more of an intent to take the fight to the ground.
I, for one, am excited at a potential Mir-Werdum heavyweight showdown, and I believe that Werdum would be able to win this bout by riding on his grappling expertise.
Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks
There’s no doubt about the fact that Josh Koscheck has been one of the best fighters at 170 pounds during the last few years. However, watching him against Mike Pierce and even Matt Hughes has me questioning where he stands in the current state the welterweight division. He was able to outpoint Pierce during their UFC 143 bout, he didn’t look like the dominating competitor he has looked like in the past. He has earned a place near the top of the rankings, but his time there may be close to over.
Enter Johny Hendricks. Hendricks has been an interesting competitor in the 170-pound weight class since his entrance into the UFC in 2009. He has fought some of the rising names in the weight class, such as Pierce, Rick Story, and Charlie Brenneman. After amassing a 2-1 record against those three competitors, he earned his biggest win when he knocked out Koscheck’s former AKA “teammate” Fitch at UFC 141. While he thinks he is the number one contender to the welterweight title, I believe he needs another solid win against a top contender while the championship situation between Condit and St. Pierre is figured out.
This fight would place NCAA champion against NCAA champion. When wrestlers compete one of two things happen: the bout is a “take them down, hold them down” affair, or they stand on their feet and trade blows because neither fighter can secure a takedown. This bout would likely become more of the latter, and Hendricks would shine in that kind of bout. Koscheck has shown punching power in the past, but the injury he suffered to his eye against St. Pierre is worrisome. We still see him flinch any time he’s hit in the face, and he is almost apprehensive when throwing punches of his own. This is even more problematic because he has moved away from the wrestling that solidified his position in the division to begin with. These issues on the feet would play right into Hendricks’ ability to catch and hurt him with that powerful left hand. This bout would end by TKO in the second or third round.
Renan Pegado vs. Brian Bowles
When Renan “Barao” Pegado made his UFC debut back at UFC 130, many hardcore fans were interested in seeing what the Nova Uniao team member had to offer, and wondered whether his 26-fight streak without a defeat was for real. But after three fights in the UFC, the bantamweight division may have found its next contender.
Pegado was able to dominate former number one contender Scott Jorgensen for three rounds using the kind of overwhelming striking game that Nova Uniao is beginning to become famous for. He continued to move forward and land blows consistently while stuffing Jorgensen’s takedowns. While I don’t think he should face the winner of Urijah Faber vs. Dominick Cruz 3 in his very next fight, he should after one more staple victory.
Brian Bowles is a former bantamweight titleholder who has not returned to the form that brought him the WEC belt back in 2009. Hand injuries have caused him to be less active than he would like, and a recent TKO defeat to Faber has forced him down the contendership ladder. Against Pegado he would have to be able to land effective counter punches while not being outworked by the Brazilian. Pegado would surely control the grappling on the mat, so Bowles would want to avoid that area of the fight at all costs. This fight would be a standup contest in which Bowles would look for the big knockout punch, while Pegado would look to score with combinations. My pick is Pegado by decision.
In 2012, Zuffa has the potential to create many big fights between the “old guard” of mixed martial arts and some of the newer names on the scene. After UFC 143, it would be interesting to speculate about how some of those fights would go, and look forward to the many others to come.
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What, no Condit vs/ St. Pierre breakdown? Should Condit even wait for GSP? What if he doesn't?
I'd like to see Condit face Koscheck. Hendricks is another good option. I'm not crazy about Koscheck vs. Hendricks. Its very similar to both of their previous fights. I said before I'd like to see Diaz face Pierce, but Fitch works also.
Then Ellenberger/Sanchez vs. Alves/Kampmann winners & losers respectively.
So you think Werdum is a better grappler than Nogeira?
I'll address the Werdum question first, I truly believe he's the best heavyweight grappler. Regardless of the fact that he's won ADCC twice…which is outstanding, one thing I look at is how active a fighter is when they are on the ground. "Everyone" and I use that term loosely, can be active and looking for submissions when on top. But Werdum is just as dangerous when he is on his back. Look at how quickly he went for the traingle/armbar against Nelson who made the dumb mistaked of stepping in his guard. I think that is what sets him apart from everyone else, his ability to stay so active on his back and work from that positin.
I don't think Koscheck will ever get a title shot unless Condit defeats GSP. I believe Condit will wait for GSP and their matchup. If Jake Ellenberger defeats Diego, I think he would be the #1 contender. If I was an advisor to Condit, I would tell him to wait for the GSP fight. Both Hendricks and Ellenberger are such wild cards that I would let him risk it from a career/pay day point of view. Call it what you want…but there is a business side to MMA.
Why would you advise Condit to wait for GSP? First of all, who knows how long GSP will be out. And more importantly, Condit is either capable of beating GSP or he is not. If he is, then he should also be able to beat other contenders. If he's not capable of beating GSP, then there's no point in waiting to lose.
From a business perspective there is, not as a fighter per say. These guys fight to get paid. Condit would get a larger payday for fighting GSP rather than fighting someone else. IF and IF he's using that mentality in making his decisions…I expect him to wait for St. Piere. N hasn't he stated that he's going to be out until about Nov?
Another thing is if he had the opportunity to be the first guy back to face GSP…I think that would be an advantage. We've seen knee injuries wreck athletes before and hinder them during their first bout…IE. Shogun vs. Forrest Griffin. If Condit took advantage of this…he may be able to face a weakened GSP.
What makes you think contenders get more money to fight for the title than they do for any other fight on their contract? That's not how it works. They get paid whatever their contract stipulates. If they are champions when they renew their contract, then they will have the opportunity to negotiate for much more.
I agree that Condit should try to make sure he's ready when GSP's ready, because UFC will likely try to slot Diaz in there otherwise. But Condit can probably take a fight and still be ready for GSP.