With so many of the sport’s best fighters standing in line, the UFC’s lightweight division can easily be compared to visiting your local Department of Motor Vehicles. More and more prospects such as Edson Barboza continue to make a push towards the top, while perennial contenders like Jim Miller stake their claims to a title shot. An interesting fight announcement pairs two contenders against each other in a bout to hopefully help separate the upper echelon from the middle of the ladder. However, the question is if the lightweight division is best served by what will come from this fight.
Former UFC lightweight contender Gray Maynard is due to face off against former Strikeforce lightweight title holder and fan favorite Clay Guida. Set for UFC on FX 4 which is planned for Atlantic City, NJ. The main event contest has a number of questions surrounding it.
From a matchmaking angle why was this bout created? With a win neither Guida nor Maynard is placed any closer to a title shot than he would be going into this bout. If the UFC’s intent with every fight is to push the winner closer to a title shot, this bout would not serve that purpose for either Maynard or Guida, who recently lost to Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson, respectively. Both of these are key losses which place them on the outside when it comes to earning a title shot during 2012.
Instead of pitting them against each other, they should be booked in fights as “measuring sticks” against the new names that are entering the lightweight rankings. For example, look at the recent bout announcement of Michael Bisping versus Tim Boetsch at UFC 148. This is a fight that is meant to prove where Boetsch fits in at 185, because a victory easily enters him into the argument to face the winner of Anderson Silva versus Chael Sonnen later this year. At the same time a loss pushes him far enough back down the roster that he would have a number of interesting fights waiting. Another example is the Jim Miller versus Charles Oliveira bout from UFC 124. Oliveira was a hot prospect who at 22 years of age burst onto the scene with two submission wins in less than two months. UFC matchmakers placed him against Jim Miller, who was well known as a consistent lightweight contender who was waiting patiently for his title opportunity. In what proved to be too much of a test for Oliveira, Miller showed exactly why he should have been considered a bigger “name” at 155, and much more than a gatekeeper.
While neither Clay Guida nor Gray Maynard should be considered “gatekeepers,” placing them against names such as Barboza, Anthony Pettis, Gleison Tibau, or even Jacob Volkmann would all lead to interesting fights that create a potential for new contenders to enter the discussion. A Guida versus Volkmann fight would be a staunch test for the fighter known as “Christmas,” who is riding a five fight win streak. Rumors were swirling about Maynard moving over to Strikeforce to face Gilbert Melendez, and not only would that bout be a great measure to see how good Melendez is and create greater hype for that fighter, but it would also give Maynard the opportunity to defeat a big name in the lightweight division.
This bout does have the star power to be the main event of the evening and carry a free fight card for mixed martial arts fans, but I believe that both fighters can be used in a more constructive fashion as measuring sticks for new lightweight contenders. Either way, Guida versus Maynard places two lightweight contenders against each other who are in dire need of wins. In the lightweight division, two losses can quickly set you back two years in the weight class. So many fighters are jockeying for position as the number one contender that a loss for either Maynard or Guida will remove them from the conversation for an extended period of time. When it comes to athletics, time is a commodity, and both Maynard and Guida need the victory to stay relevant in the sports deepest division.
Wrestlers often get a bad rap when it comes to their in-cage performances, but fans should not turn a blind eye to this main event fight, as both Maynard and Guida know how to create as exciting fight. Matchup wise, “The Bully” versus “The Carpenter” is a prototypical wrestler versus wrestler contest; however, when two evenly skilled wrestlers are pitted against each other the bout can turn into a striking affair. When looking at these two fighters on the feet you can give both a point for different areas of their games. Maynard will hold the power advantage, as he has shown he can rock an opponent with one well-timed blow. Guida is loved for his work rate both on the feet and the mat, and you can expect him to continue pushing forward no matter the situation.
While Guida has 15 of his 29 victories by submission, he isn’t known for his grappling acumen. Against Maynard I do not think he will be able to lock up a fight-stopping submission due to Maynard’s strength advantage, nor will he be able to sweep him to switch positions. However, if Guida can score a takedown, I do think he would be active enough to score points in that position. Maynard will have to look to use his wrestling much the same way he used it to control Kenny Florian at UFC 118.
Cardiovascular endurance is going to play an important role in this bout. Ever since UFC 125 assumptions have hovered over Maynard’s gas tank and his ability to stay productive throughout the bout. Having that problem against Guida is a recipe for disaster, as he keeps moving forward with nearly reckless abandon no matter how long the fight is set to last. Although he hasn’t fought in a five-round affair since facing Gilbert Melendez at Strikeforce: Revenge in 2006, Guida has shown an ability to fight at a pace that is hard for any opponent to keep up with. While it leaves him open for counterpunching and takedowns, there’s no question that he will have the gas tank to survive the whole bout, and that’s a strong advantage when placed against an opponent who struggles when doing the same.
Gray Maynard will face Clay Guida in the UFC on FX 4 main event on June 22nd in New Jersey. Expect fast-paced, back and forth action in a fight that both competitors need to win — and win in an exciting fashion — to hold onto the positions they have fought so hard to earn.
I don't really agree with Raphael here. I think there's a good chance we could be positioned for Gray Maynard vs. Ben Henderson and Clay Guida vs. Frankie Edgar. I like both of those fights. And even if it doesn't work out that way I'm interested in seeing exactly how far Guida can go, even if we have reason to think he can't make it to the top.
Besides for Pettis I don't think there's any other LWs that are so close to title contention that they need a matchup with Guida or Maynard right now.