We now know where our next number one contender to the welterweight title will come from. On June 1st, Martin Kampmann and Jake Ellenberger will headline a yet-to-be-named UFC event from Las Vegas, Nevada, and according to multiple media outlets, this bout will determine the next man to get a shot at the 170-pound title. Even still, you have to wonder if a true contender will get his hand raised at the end of the evening.
“Jake Ellenberger and Martin Kampmann are going to fight for the chance to earn a title shot,” UFC President Dana White stated through a press release. “They will headline the season finale of TUF: Live on FX to crown the next Ultimate Fighter.”
Kampmann and Ellenberger have taken two different roads to get to this point, but a victory for either fighter places them in a position they have not yet been at this juncture of their career.
Kampmann is coming off of a comeback victory that he pulled out against Thiago Alves on UFC on FX 2 in March. He was being outclassed by “The Pitbull” for more than 14 minutes, until Alves mistakenly drove for a final takedown but left his neck exposed. Kampmann, whose ground game is often overlooked for his striking abilities, locked in a guillotine choke that forced a tap out with 48 seconds left in a fight he was surely going to lose had it went to the judges’ scorecards. This was a very important victory for the Danish fighter, who has recently suffered two close and controversial losses to Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields before defeating Rick Story last year.
“The Juggernaut” has been on a tear as of late, as he has ripped off six wins in a row. He has only been defeated once in seven UFC appearances, and that lone defeat comes to current interim champion Carlos Condit. What makes the possibility of a rematch even more interesting is that many people believe Ellenberger won that 2009 fight against Condit. Since that fight he has dominated much of the opposition, stopping four of six fighters: Mike Pyle, John Howard, Sean Pierson, and Jake Shields. Along with those wins, he has defeated Carlos Eduardo Rocha and Diego Sanchez by decision victory. Even before Georges St. Pierre went down with a knee injury, the calls were begging for “Rush” to face off against Ellenberger to create some fresh interest in the welterweight division.
Even with this announcement, I find it hard to believe that the winner will immediately be considered the number one contender to the title. A number of questions swirl around the results of this fight and what the UFC will do moving forward.
For example, when will the contender get his fight against the eventual champion? With Jake and Martin set to fight in June, they will not know who they are fighting until Condit and St. Pierre fight. These two are set to square off towards the end of the year, as current estimates have him coming back in November at UFC 154, which will take place in Montreal. That is already a five-month layoff to see who the true champion will be. Add an additional three months on for the winner to recuperate before Ellenberger or Kampmann gets his shot, and that totals potentially eight months on the shelf before the winner would fight again. While most fighters would be willing to wait that long if they knew they were guaranteed a title shot, you have to wonder if they will be allowed to do so.
That brings me to the discussion of other contenders within the welterweight division. With his quick knockout of Jon Fitch in December, Johny Hendricks is considered one of the top contenders in the division. He’s set to face former title challenger Josh Koscheck in May at UFC on Fox 3. If the former NCAA national champion repeats his efforts against Fitch’s former teammate and close friend, it would be hard to argue against his feelings that he should be the next man to get a title shot. If he wins this bout convincingly, especially in highlight reel fashion, would any of us be shocked if he was placed in front of the winner of Ellenberger–Kampmann? Well, you shouldn’t be at all.
What about a return of lightning rod Nick Diaz if he finds a way to win his appeal against the Nevada State Athletic Commission? Would Dana and company place him in front of the winner based off of the business and revenue he would bring in?
While UFC President has made it known that the next contender for the welterweight title will come from the winner of Jake Ellenberger versus Martin Kampmann, that shouldn’t be set in stone. With numerous examples to point to over recent time, we have seen how quickly that contendership title can change hands, and that can potentially happen here as well. A victory for either of these fighters is very important, as it will place the winner in a position neither has had the opportunity to see. If he will hold onto that position remains to be seen.
