A fight that is surrounded by a substantial amount of hype rarely lives up to the lofty expectations that we’ve set for it. Mixed martial arts has had its moments, but none like what we are looking at with UFC 148. Chael Sonnen did a fantastic job building up the first showdown at UFC 117, but this is different, because for this fight, both fighters have played a part in building up this confrontation to monumental proportions. Now, we look at this bout from both fighters’ perspectives.
This fight is one of the best examples of the expression that “styles make fights.” The perennial striker in Anderson Silva that has knocked multiple opponents out in spectacular fashion faces off against a wrestler who specializes in planting his opponent on the canvas and grinding out a finish. We saw what happened the first time around and remember it vividly, as Sonnen pounded Silva in a way that is not only rare for the champion; he dished out a beating that is rare in the sport no matter who is fighting. Allegations of testosterone usage and assumptions about a rib injury abound, but the fact of the matter still remains – Chael Sonnen created the prototypical game plan to defeat Silva. The question is: Can he do it again for the full 25 minutes?
Are these two fighters the same combatants that we saw back in 2010? Silva’s stuck to his ways, and in a little more than ten minutes of competition has knocked out both Vitor Belfort and Yushin Okami. The fight with Belfort was more of an anomaly, as we saw him unleash a front kick that caught everyone by surprise. However, the fight with Okami was interesting to watch.
Yushin Okami has spent much of the last two years training with Sonnen after he was defeated by the self-proclaimed “American Gangster” back in 2009. Okami tried to use much of the same strongman tactics that Sonnen used during his bout with the champion, and while he is nowhere near the level of wrestler that Sonnen has become, it was still stunning to watch Silva shrug off Okami’s strength and land blows from various angles at will. The head kick that ended the first round let Okami know that he would be hit whenever the champion chose, and opened the way towards the second round finish.
It’s true that wrestling vs. takedown defense is going to be the story going into this bout. Silva will have to be able to stop Sonnen from taking him to the ground, where his size and strength has proved dominant him in the past. Silva’s training camp for this bout has been strictly closed, though a recent interview with Nova Uniao’s Andre Pederneiras revealed that he has helped Silva train for this bout. If there is anywhere in Brazil to train a striker for takedown defense, it is Nova Uniao, which has a host of strikers that have developed great takedown defense. Is this going to be enough? We will know come Saturday night, but it is a point that makes this bout much more intriguing.
On the other side, Sonnen’s game has always had holes when it comes to the grappling aspect. He enjoys staying in his opponent’s guard and dropping heavy blows until either the round ends or his opponent can no longer continue. That propensity has caused him to get caught, especially by the triangle choke and armbar, which has led to 8 of his 11 defeats. In response, Sonnen has had to work on his grappling chops, and when he sliced his way through Brian Stann’s guard to move to side control to apply the head and arm choke, many people believed that he had finally done the work to fix one of the glaring holes in his MMA game.
Vinny Magalhaes, who is a second degree black belt under Royler Gracie, has gone on record that he believes Sonnen can submit Silva this time around. Quite the statement, if you look at the challenger’s past against men who are well-versed on the mat. If Sonnen has found a way to combine scoring takedowns at will and avoiding the submissions that are sure to come, he may have put together the combination needed to unseat one of the most dominating fighters we’ve ever seen in the sport.
The type of Chael Sonnen that goes into this bout is going to determine the outcome of the fight. Word is circulating that Sonnen has somewhere in the range of 20 pounds to lose before the final weigh-ins on Friday, and we’ve seen how such a massive weight cut can harm a fighter. Sonnen had weight issues before facing Michael Bisping earlier this year, and Bisping was able to land multiple strikes throughout the bout. If he goes in looking similar to that form, he will have a very hard time dealing with Silva for an entire title fight, and the potential for a technical knockout will increase. On the other hand, if he can stick to his game plan and avoid any mental lapses, then he has the best chance in a long time to unseat the king of the middleweight division.
Even still, my prediction for this bout is that a victory will come for Anderson Silva by a knockout. Instead of getting caught up in the supposed “fired up” state of the champion, look for a complete change in game plan by Silva, which will include better movement, instead of settling for standing exchanges with Sonnen. His striking has proven to be enough to rattle even the strongest chins in the sport, and that will remain true as he earns a victory within the championship rounds.
With so many eyes upon them, both hardcore and mainstream, Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen have a chance to create a historical moment within mixed martial arts. Sit back and enjoy whatever happens at UFC 148, because it may be a long time before we have another main event such as this.
