Is it just me, or is no one talking about the featherweight
bout this weekend between Clay Guida and Hatsu Hioki?
The two fighters compete against one another in an undercard
bout at UFC on FOX 6 this Saturday night at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
Guida, who was a top 10 lightweight fighter, is making his debut at 145 pounds,
but he has not been given an easy task at all in his first cut to
featherweight, as he takes on the top-ranked Hioki.
This should be a great fight.
Guida, 29-13, has long been considered one of the most exciting
fighters in the UFC – just watch his war with Diego Sanchez to see why – but in
the fight business, one is only as good as his or her last fight, and Guida’slast performance, a confusing one against Gray Maynard back at UFC on FX 4, was
one the fans hated. For five rounds Guida danced and darted around the Octagon,
and ended up losing a decision in a fight so boring that many were calling for
UFC president Dana White to cut him. Prior to that, Guida lost to UFC
lightweight champion Benson Henderson at UFC on FOX 1, and now, riding a
two-fight losing streak, there’s no question he needs to have a good showing
against Hioki to not only keep his relevance in the rankings, but also to keep
his job, because three losses in a row is usually not a good thing.
But it won’t be easy an easy task.
Hioki, 26-5-2, was thought by many to be the next contender for
UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo’s belt, but a surprise upset loss to
Ricardo Lamas at UFC on FX 4 nixed his title hopes for the foreseeable future.
Before coming to the UFC, Hioki had racked up a number of wins over top
featherweights like Mark Hominick and Marlon Sandro in his career, but he
hasn’t looked like a world beater in the Octagon. Hioki is now a mediocre 2-1
in the UFC , with a close win over George Roop and a good performance in his fight with Bart Palaszewski, but the loss to Lamas set him back, and like
Guida, if he wants to remain a title contender, he needs a good performance
this weekend, so clearly this is a very important fight for him as well.
The X-factor in this fight is no doubt what Guida’s gameplan
will be. If he wants to stick and move like he did against Maynard – but
actually stick this time and not just move – he may be able to confuse Hioki on
the feet like he did to Takanori Gomi at UFC 125 and, even though he’s a reach
disadvantage, make it difficult for Hioki, who’s a better striker, to tag him.
Furthermore, Guida is a grinder, and even though Hioki is a dangerous
submission artist who can threaten from his back, Guida has excellent
submission defence and if this fight goes to the ground it’s likely he’ll be
able to survive to at least a decision. But then again, don’t count Hioki out,
because he really is a stud and arguably one of the most underrated mixed
martial artists at any weight class.
Expect the winner of this bout to reaffirm his status as a top 10
featherweight. The loser, however, is going to be in a very precarious spot
with the promotion, because three-straight L’s for Guida and two-straight for
Hioki is bad any way you look at it.
No one’s talking about this fight, but
it’s a dark horse contender for “Fight of the Night.” Expect both these guys to
go at it full tilt for 15 minutes and for it to be close on the cards, but if
it’s close, expect Guida, the hometown boy, to have a slight advantage. I can’t
wait for this fight, so don’t miss it. It’s just a shame it’s buried on the
undercard and not on the main FOX card where it belongs. But wherever it is on
the card, expect it to be a ton of fun.
