Billington’s Breakdown: Sonnen vs. Rua

By Roy Billington

On Saturday night, the UFC’s most polarizing fighter, Chael Sonnen, fights former UFC light heavyweight champion and PRIDE star Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in the main event of UFC Fight Night 26. This is probably one of the the most interesting matchups that could be made in the 205-pound division. This piece will break down both fighters, as well as where the fight will likely be won and lost.

Chael Sonnen

Following a collegiate wrestling career at The University of Oregon, West Linn native Chael Sonnen set his sights on an Olympic gold medal, but after he failed in his attempts at making the Olympic team, he decided to focus solely on mixed martial arts, a sport which he competed in occasionally while still competing in wrestling. In 2005, Sonnen debuted in the UFC against Renato “Babalu” Sobral, and after a valiant effort he succumbed to a submission in the second round. During his first spell in the UFC, a then soft-spoken Sonnen struggled before eventually being cut from the promotion, going 1-2.

After a run in the Bodog Fight promotion, and an excellent stint in WEC, Chael Sonnen returned to the UFC in 2009. He was rewarded with a fight against gifted grappler Demian Maia, but yet again submissions became his downfall, as Maia dispatched Sonnen in the first round.

However, after that fight we were introduced to Chael Sonnen 2.0: a resurgent Sonnen, with the brashness of a pro wrestler, and the skills to back it up. He racked up three straight wins, earned himself a shot at the middleweight title, and soon became one of the most popular figures in the sport.

Sonnen is known for his high-level wrestling, but has made vast improvements in his standup, as well as in his offensive grappling, an improvement that was on display when he faced Brian Stann at UFC 136. Sonnen’s grappling game relies heavily on a power double and constant ground and pound when on top. Lately Sonnen has begun to try to pass his opponents’ guard, instead of his old habit of maintaining guard and raining down ground and pound.

Striking-wise, Sonnen favors a traditional boxing style and relies heavily on moving forward and utilising great head work. Sonnen also has eccentric tendencies, but after a failed spinning back fist cost him big against Anderson Silva at UFC 148, I believe he learned his lesson.

The keys to victory for “The American Gangster” are making sure he presses from the beginning and never gives Shogun a chance to set his feet and throw hard, Sonnen needs to take the fight into the later rounds, and test Rua’s questionable cardio through constantly trying to initiate the grappling game.

Shogun Rua

Mauricio Rua has been considered a Top 10 light heavyweight for the best part of the last decade. Following an unbelievable stint in PRIDE Fighting Championship, Rua was the consensus best fighter in the world at 205 pounds. After knocking out Alistar Overeem in the first round at Pride 33, he moved over to the UFC, where many predicted he would dominate his way to the title, but unfortunately for Rua, it wasn’t as easy as that. At UFC 76 in 2007, he faced The Ultimate Fighter 1 winner Forrest Griffin, and the outcome was a shock to most. A stale and out of shape Shogun was rear naked choked by Griffin, in what was easily one of the biggest shocks in UFC history.

Fast forward to 2009, and Shogun Rua was at the brink of greatness. After a tough-fought five-round war with Lyoto Machida at UFC 104, it had seemed like all the years of hard work had culminated, and Maurico Rua was on the cusp of a UFC championship, but alas, it all went wrong. Shockingly, after a dominant performance, the judges made a massive error (as they often seem to) and awarded the decision to Machida. This was a blessing in disguise for Rua, who was awarded an immediate rematch at UFC 113, and finally brutally ended the Machida Era by knockout.

While beating Machida was the crowning point of Rua’s career, it also was a turning point, as during the fight he re-tore his ACL, and the Shogun that returned from that injury was never the same; he has gone 2-3 since then.

On the feet Shogun is one of the most brutal fighters in the world. His clinch is legendary and he has been working his boxing at the famed Wild Card Gym under Freddie Roach. However, Shogun’s knees no longer allow him to pivot properly, and as a result it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him throw some of his patented leg kicks.

The keys for victory for Shogun are simple: He needs to create space on the feet and utilise his heavy hands. He must avoid being on his back at all costs.

The Verdict

I see this fight taking place mainly on the canvas. I really can’t see this version of Shogun being able to defend against Sonnen’s patented double. I believe in the first Sonnen will take down Shogun and he will scramble back to his feet, but by round three, he’ll be truly fatigued, and by the fourth, he’ll be a punching bag for Sonnen. Expect a unanimous nod for Sonnen, or perhaps a late finish.

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