One of the biggest appeals of mixed martial arts is that great fights between closely-matched athletes occur on nearly every card. Looking at the UFC 167 card, there are a number of contests that can catch a fan’s attention beyond just the main event. The lightweight tilt between Donald Cerrone and Evan Dunham on the preliminary card has all the makings of a fight that can steal the show, assuming both combatants go at things the way they have in the past.
Donald Cerrone and Evan Dunham are two fighters who have waded on the edge or just outside of the top ten at 155 for years. Cerrone had been making a push to be considered one the top five fighters in the division, but recent losses have pushed him back down the ladder, while Dunham is still working to regain the momentum he lost back in 2011.
These two combatants have a combined 14-7 win-loss record under Zuffa employ, which includes four-fight win streaks on both resumes. However, they have both lost recent battles to up-and-coming lightweights Rafael dos Anjos and T.J. Grant that have pushed their names to the back burner when it comes to 155, a division that is one of the most talent-rich within the entire sport.
Fight Metric points towards a number of measures of how these fighters compare to one another, demonstrating a number of similarities that stand out: to make this fight intriguing.
According to their numbers, Dunham is the more active fighter, as he lands more strikes in the course of his fights. His average fight time is also two minutes longer than that of Cerrone based on fifteen-minute fight times. While Dunham has landed more strikes during his UFC career, Cerrone has proven more accurate with his ability to score with his striking attempts. The biggest point of interest is Dunham’s ability to defend strikes, which is better than Cerrone’s. Nate Diaz was able to pick apart Cerrone over the course of their matchup and showed how fighters with the ability to pressure Cerrone could cause him trouble. Dunham has shown that ability, as examples of his striking pressure strategy were put on display against Sean Sherk, Shamar Bailey, and Nik Lentz.
Given that, it will be intriguing to see what type of strategy “Cowboy” will choose to employ in this matchup. He holds a 3-inch reach advantage in this fight, but he has shown in the past that he isn’t always content to remain on the outside, and has demonstrated an ability to score takedowns. Dunham has incorporated takedown attempts into his game plan throughout his UFC career, and doing so again would benefit him against Cerrone. However, once there, that doesn’t mean Dunham will be in complete control. Cerrone will put Dunham’s submission defense to the test, because even though he is known as an aggressive striker, Cerrone puts more guys away via submission than any other method.
Staying on the outside to pepper Dunham with strikes should be Cerrone’s strategy going into this bout. That may go against his penchant for mixing things up, but Cerrone is a smart fighter who knows that he needs a win to close out 2013. However, Dunham prefers to mix it up in his bouts as well, to the point where fights get very close on the judges’ scorecards. One should expect multiple takedown attempts by Dunham to go along with multiple standup exchanges. This is going to be a very close fight that will be tough to call, but it has a strong opportunity to be an action-packed showcase of two complete mixed martial artists in the Octagon.
Evan Dunham vs. Donald Cerrone is one of many intriguing fights that are set for Saturday’s UFC 167 card. Two lightweights that are in dire need of a big win should bring a highly enjoyable fight for fans to enjoy, and their bout is a front runner for Fight of the Night.
• Donald Cerrone vs. Evan Dunham
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UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks is due to take place on November 16, 2013 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
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