UFC 170 has been getting a large amount of coverage as of late for a variety of reasons. This card features the first time that two Olympic medalists will meet in the Octagon, and that will decide who will be the women’s bantamweight champion after Saturday night’s main event. Another Olympian, Daniel Cormier, has been introduced to quite the foil after the sudden emergence of Patrick Cummins as his short-notice opponent. With so much going on, it’s easy to see how an important welterweight fight between Rory MacDonald and Demian Maia could go unnoticed. However, there is a lot on the line for both of these competitors.
The year 2013 ended for both Maia and MacDonald with each man’s momentum coming to a screeching halt. They had carved out separate paths that seemed to be taking them both towards eventual shots at the welterweight strap, but Robbie Lawler and Jake Shields would change that situation. These two fighters go into UFC 170 with the intention of righting their respective ships, but to do so they have to kick off the year against each other in a fight that should be very interesting to watch.
This fight is important to both of these athletes for different reasons. Maia dropped to the welterweight division in 2012 to attempt to spark his career, which was successful for a short while. However, two bad losses, back to back, will force him into a hole that would be difficult to crawl out of at this point in time. MacDonald, on the other hand, was well on his way to being considered the uncrowned champion, ready to step in when his teammate Georges St.-Pierre stepped away. Although the mainstream fan base had not caught on with support to the same degree that they did for GSP, the fact was that he was looking more improved every time out until his defeat to Lawler. However, his previous fight — against Jake Ellenberger at UFC on Fox 8 — didn’t leave him in the best of graces with UFC brass, so he can’t afford to put on another performance quite like that one.
Statistically speaking, there is a strong argument for MacDonald to be the favorite heading into this fight. At 24 years of age, he seems to hold an advantage in nearly every point of interest over his Brazilian opponent. For example, Fight Metric points towards MacDonald’s ability to land 3.85 strikes per minute, compared to Maia’s ability to land just 1.7 in that same time span. That statistic doesn’t take into account the fact that Maia uses much more of a grappling-oriented style, but even that area will pose some questions that may be difficult to answer. Maia is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist, but he isn’t among the best at scoring takedowns. To date, his takedown accuracy sits at a paltry 33 percent, though he has shown flashes of improvement, such as the way he was able to dominate highly-touted wrestlers like Jon Fitch and Rick Story. On the mat, Maia would have the experience edge, but that doesn’t mean he would be able to completely control MacDonald in that area either.
MacDonald’s style is meant to frustrate his opponents into fighting “ugly” battles. He was able to do so against Ellenberger, and attempted to do the same against Lawler, but was unsuccessful. The use of his jab and slow pace keeps his opponent at bay long enough for MacDonald to pile on points, which is vital to winning a three-round fight such as this one. Maia can attempt to push forward, but we’ve seen him struggle with cardio, so at 36 years old , pushing the pace may not be the best style to try to use against the young Canadian.
This is a “must win” fight for both competitors. While their jobs are not on the line, another defeat has the potential to push them out of the top ten rankings altogether. The welterweight division is wide open, and 2014 is the year that new contenders are going to flood the weight class. With Georges St. Pierre gone, UFC matchmakers will not have to look far to find new challengers for the man that wears the belt after Robbie Lawler faces Johnny Hendricks at UFC 171. Demain Maia and Rory MacDonald are fighting for the opportunity to keep their names mentioned amongst the best in the weight class, and in the race for that eventual title shot.
• Rory MacDonald vs. Demian Maia
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UFC 170: Rousey vs. McMann is due to take place on February 22, 2014 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Statistics are very unreliable for MMA. Maia was a MW for most of his MMA career and since dropping to WW, he's been much more successful with his tds while fighting some pretty competent wrestlers. I would love to see Rory open up more with his striking and be confident in his ability to defend subs and get back up but his recent history and the gameplan history of his gym worry me.
only 6 fights so far so it's a little too early. I'd expect them to have at least 11 fights on this card cuz I again assume it will be aired on FS1 since it's in the U.S. If, as I expect, Rich Franklin has his retirement fight then the ranking would go up but right now I can only give it 3 stars and it would be 2 w/o the FLWs.
Absolutely terrible pick. Machida did all he could to not make this a fight but a pts match with very limited engagements. Oliveira/Ogle & Alcantara/Reis were MUCH better and so were most of the others on this card.