Despite winning only one of his last three fights inside the Octagon, heavyweight Alistair Overeem has a very good chance of claiming the next title shot with a victory this weekend at UFC Fight Night 50. The former DREAM and Strikeforce heavyweight champion takes on Ben Rothwell in the co-main event, and with a win, he could could very well cement his place as the next title contender for the winner of UFC 180‘s Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum.
Despite having a mediocre 2-2 record in the UFC, with both of those losses coming via knockout, Overeem does have a few things going for him in his quest to taste UFC gold:
 |
| GIF courtesy of @ZProphet_MMA |
First off, he hasn’t fought Velasquez yet. The champ has pretty much beaten all of the other top contenders, and should he get by Werdum (he is a heavy betting favorite heading into the fight), Overeem would make sense as his next opponent. He is ranked in the top 10, and if he beats Rothwell, he will be on a two-fight win streak. Sure, he might not exactly deserve the shot if he beats an unranked fighter in Rothwell (and before that, a fading veteran in Frank Mir), but there really isn’t anyone else at heavyweight who would be a fresh contender for Velasquez that is coming off of a win except for Stipe Miocic.
Secondly, Overeem — for better or worse — is a marketable asset for the UFC and always draws eyeballs. In a year where the UFC is struggling for pay-per-view buys, the hulking Overeem, who looks to be in incredible shape this fight camp based on his Instagram photos, would no doubt help sell a fight against Velasquez. Even though he’s been caught for performance-enhancing drugs in the past, and even though a lot of people hate him, let’s face it, people want to watch him fight, even if many of them are hoping he gets knocked out.
And thirdly, the timing makes sense. Anyone who follows the sport knows that timing and circumstance often leads to title shots (just look at Joe Soto, for instance), and the timing is right for Overeem. He fights in September and Velasquez fights in November, so the timetable supports the two fighting next spring for the belt in a pay-per-view main event. Heck, if the UFC 180 card is a success, maybe the UFC will go back to Mexico for back-to-back fights with Velasquez and bring in Overeem as his opposing foil. I have a feeling that would be a big fight for the Mexican fans, as well as for those ordering the event at home.
But before Overeem can even think about Velasquez, he has to first get by Rothwell, and it won’t be as easy as some think. As far as the Rothwell vs. Overeem matchup goes, it’s no joke. Rothwell is a heavy hitter with a rock-like chin, who, on paper, is a bad matchup for “The Reem,” a fighter who, despite his impressive striking skills, has a poor chin. But Rothwell, despite those heavy hands and that ability to take punishment, is also a very flawed fighter in many ways. So Overeem is a bad matchup for him as well. It’s an intriguing fight for sure, and not a gimme by any means (although the betting lines say differently).
If Velasquez is upset by Werdum, I fully expect the UFC to give him an immediate rematch. But if he wins, he’ll need a fresh foe for the title, and Overeem makes the most sense of anyone on the roster. (As long as, unlike the last time he got a UFC title shot, Overeem passes his drug tests.) Of course, this will all be a moot point should Overeem lose to Rothwell this weekend. But if he wins as expected, get ready for the ‘Overeem for a title shot’ campaign, because it will most certainly be coming.
• Alistair Overeem vs. Ben Rothwell
Click the stars to rate your anticipation for this fight.
**********
UFC Fight Night 50: Jacare vs. Mousasi is due to take place on September 5, 2014 at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut.
Click the stars to rate how good you think UFC Fight Night 50 will be.
The great thing about Overeem constantly being overrated and exposed is that it shows the 1st thing the original UFC proved: that form and looking good mean shit in a real fight and success in more regulated sport fighting means very little when those false rules are removed and that's the great thing about MMA: the fewer rules, the better. Too much of sport BJJ, boxing, kickboxing, and especially amateur wrestling is dependent on the excess of rules designed to focus on athleticism and this detracts from actual combat skill.