UFC 189 is the Conor McGregor show. First Jose Aldo was riding shotgun and now Chad Mendes is along for the ride. As fans and media alike look ahead to the big main event, there’s another title fight happening on the card that is flying under the radar. Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald is a showcase that can easily steal the show on Saturday. But sadly, the UFC is seriously dropping the ball and overlooking it.
Less than two years ago at UFC 167, Lawler and MacDonald met in a fight that Lawler was able to walk out of with a split decision victory. According to MMA Decisions, judges Cecil Peoples and Mark Smith awarded Lawler the fight with the score 29-28. They both agreed that Lawler won the first and third rounds. Glenn Trowbridge felt that MacDonald walked away with the first and second rounds of the fight. Reviewing the Fight Metric statistical report, there’s clear support for the decision.
Lawler completely owned the first round, a round in which he landed 14 significant strikes in comparison to the 7 that MacDonald landed in the round. He was also very diverse in his striking, but his aggression was a key component of taking that first scorecard in the eyes of two judges.
MacDonald was the aggressor in round two, as he landed 17 significant strikes. His output vastly overcame Lawler’s 8 strikes landed for that round. What really changed in this round was that MacDonald began to implement a takedown game that helped him seal that round. It is that same aspect that brings the third round into question.
The third was the most interesting round from a statistical standpoint. MacDonald landed 13 of 31 significant strikes compared to 22 of 49 for Lawler. The “Red King’ also landed three of four takedowns in this round. However, Lawler did complete one key reversal that allowed him to gain a dominant position during this round.
But regardless of the numbers, each round was full of back and forth action, and it was close enough that it was no wonder the judges could not agree who won this fight.
That brings us to this weekend’s bout. According to MMA Oddsbreaker, MacDonald is the -190 favorite to Lawler’s +165 underdog status. However, there are paths to victory for both men. MacDonald must control the pace with his jab and range while mixing in takedowns and ground work. Lawler has to be aggressive with his striking on the feet and keep the fight there for extended periods of time. He’s shown he has the power to drop MacDonald, and doing so again this weekend will go a long way towards raising his chances to get the win.
Looking back to the past gives us some insight into the welterweight title fight in the co-main event of UFC 189. A dynamic striker with solid wrestling defense faces a grappler that excels in controlling the pace; this is the exact type of matchup that can create a special moment. Lawler vs. MacDonald is a contest that should have been properly pushed for its fair share of attention. Sadly, the promotion missed the boat, but fans shouldn’t miss the fight.
• Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
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UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor (formerly UFC 189: Aldo vs. McGregor) takes place on July 11, 2015 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
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