Renan Barão Looks To Regain His P4P Status At UFC on FOX 16

By Adam Martin

It was over a year ago, in May 2014 to be exact, when UFC president Dana White asserted to the media that Renan Barão – who at the time was the UFC Bantamweight Champion, and who was riding a 33-fight undefeated streak – was the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

“Look at the numbers and look at Renan Barão’s fights, he’s all there. He’s the kind of guy that I like to watch. He’s a killer, he comes in and he tries to finish you,” White told The Telegraph’s Gareth Davies.

“Look at the efficiency of the kid, and how he has not been anywhere near being beaten in all those years. This is a sport where there’s always a guy who may have better wrestling, or better striking, or better something. I’ve been debating if he is #1 pound-for-pound and, for me, he is.”

Not surprisingly, when the UFC booked Barão to fight TJ Dillashaw – a good fighter for sure, but one whose best win at the time was Mike Easton – most people figured it was a squash match, an uncompetitive fight where Dillashaw would be sent to the slaughter and fans would go home seeing a highlight-reel knockout courtesy of the Brazilian. The betting line for their UFC 173 encounter pegged Barão as a -965 favorite at close, with Dillashaw a +765 underdog, numbers you generally don’t see in a title fight.

It was supposed to be a quick, brutal finish for Barão, another notch on his resume as he tried to climb the consensus P4P ranks. But it was anything but.

Instead of Barao dominating Dillashaw like almost everyone expected, the complete opposite happened. Dillashaw, whose training with Muay Thai striking coach Duane “Bang” Ludwig clearly paid off, set the tone of the fight from the opening round, dropping Barão in the first stanza and nearly finishing him. Barão was able to survive, but he was clearly concussed from the first-round knockdown courtesy of Dillashaw, and the next four rounds were more about surviving than anything else. And while Barão hung in there for as long as he could, eventually Dillashaw was able to land a head kick and finish off Barão with just two-and-a-half minutes remaining in the fight, winning the title and shocking the MMA world in one of the biggest upsets in the sport’s history.

After the fight, Barão and his camp blamed a bad weight cut on his poor performance. They also made the argument that after getting dropped in the first round he just wasn’t the same fighter that we usually see dominate his opposition in the Octagon. The UFC agreed that one fight didn’t prove Dillashaw’s superiority over Barão, granting him an immediate title rematch for UFC 177.

Unfortunately for Barão, he got sick from his weight cut, fainting and hitting his head the day of the weigh-ins, and he was forced to pull out of the fight. Instead, Dillashaw fought short-notice replacement Joe Soto, and just like he did to Barão, he knocked Soto out in the fifth round with a brutal head kick.

The UFC was extremely disappointed in Barao for missing weight, and used him as the scapegoat for the poor pay-per-view numbers UFC 177 did. So instead of giving him the title fight again, the organization made Barão fight Mitch Gagnon at UFC Fight Night 59, and while he did win the fight via submission, it was a less-than-inspiring performance by the man White once labeled as the top fighter on the planet.

Still, it was enough for Barão to get another title shot against Dillashaw, and the pair were set to face off at UFC 186. This time, though, Dillashaw broke a rib in training and had to pull out, forcing this long-awaited rematch to take place at UFC on FOX 16. And finally, after over a year of waiting, here we are, ready to see the rematch between two of the best bantamweight fighters on the planet.

Unlike the first fight, where Barão was a massive betting favorite, Dillashaw is now the betting favorite. The odds have been reversed in a manner we have never seen before in MMA, as Barão has gone from being a near 10-to-1 betting favorite to being a 2-to-1 underdog, with Dillashaw going from a near 8-to-1 dog to a 2-to-1 favorite.

Most people figure Dillashaw will win this rematch, and after his systematic dismantling of Barão the first time they fought, it’s hard to argue against it, but if Barão can someone pull off the upset, especially if he does so via stoppage, it would be hard not to move him back among the pound-for-pound elite. After all, going 34-1 in his last 35 fights would be pretty damn good. And without Jon Jones or Jose Aldo around the Octagon these days, who knows, maybe White would start promoting Barao as the top P4P fighter once again.

This rematch will answer a lot of questions about both Barão and Dillashaw. It’s the main event of UFC on FOX 16, and it’s a good one, so tune into this one and expect the unexpected, fight fans. Because as we saw when this pair met the first time, truly anything can – and often does – happen in MMA.