Fight Picks and Predictions for UFC 119: Pay-Per-View Basement

UFC 119: Mir vs. Cro Cop, formerly called
Mir vs. Nogueira 2 is going to set a new basement for UFC PPV numbers in the modern era. Zuffa hasn’t spent much money in putting talent on the card, the undercard is absolutely horrible, and it seems basically to exist to keep the UFC brand name in the public consciousness and not lose market share. Still, even with all that considered, there is some real talent on display and a few interesting matchups. If you are so inclined, there are also many great betting lines to take advantage of.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (+225) vs. Frank Mir (-260)

It’s strange how a fight like Mir vs. Nogueira can fall apart, with Nogueira being replaced by a lower-ranked fighter in Cro Cop, but the fight becomes much more interesting. Cro Cop and Mir, for all their limitations, fit with each other two two puzzle pieces. Cro Cop is shopworn, having lost some of his athletic speed and certainly his takedown defense, but he still hits very hard and accurately. Mir is the much bigger, stronger man, and he has the submission skills to finish off Cro Cop on the floor, but he lacks staying power and falls apart whenever he gets cracked.

Perhaps after being absolutely crushed by Carwin, Mir will have less faith in his ability to engage opponents standing, and won’t play right into Filipovic’s strength, but there’s still a good chance that he tries to exchange and gets popped, which is almost always the beginning of the end for him. Even with Mirko’s headkick seemingly de-fanged, his piston-like punches are more than enough to give Frank Mir the Ian Freeman treatment, so he definitely has a decent shot at winning this fight.

On the flipside, everyone that has seriously endeavored to take Mirko down in recent years has succeeded. Gone are the days when he was stonewalling skilled wrestlers and representing the epitome of the sprawl and brawl gameplan. When Mir bulls into him, Mirko is going to toppled to the mat, and probably get strangled. His grappling deficiencies have been overlooked for a long time due to the fact that almost no heavyweights can really work a submission game, but Mir is the exception to that rule. If Mir doesn’t get the sub early, he is in trouble. Cro Cop, for all his front-running tendencies, is the more durable and lasting fighter between the two, and he will KO a gassed Mir if the former champ doesn’t find a choke quickly. Frank Mir by submission, round 1.

If you’re a Mir hater, a flier on Crocop at +225 wouldn’t be a terrible way to spend your money.

Ryan Bader (-175) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+150)

Ryan Bader is a limited fighter. His record is as shiny as they come, but one only has to watch his life-and-death struggle with Keith Jardine (a man coming off two losses who followed up the loss to Bader with two more losses, bringing him to 0-5 since 2008) to see where Bader currently is in his progression as a fighter. His standup game is rudimentary at best, he doesn’t offer significant offense on the floor, and he carries so much muscle that he only has about seven minutes of good, hard fighting in the tank.

Rogerio Nogueira is a very talented fighter. His boxing has, at times, looked excellent, he’s a phenomenal grappler, both with sweeps and submissions, and his a durable, hard-nosed competitor. However he’s never truly achieved greatness in the ring. He has always been surrounded by the aura of greatness, because it’s hard not to equate him with his much more accomplished twin brother, but he’s also never had a single one of the transcendental moments of greatness that have defined Rodrigo’s career. This guy is a man who should have lost his last fight to pudgy Jason Brilz, part-time fighter and genetic overachiever. Brilz, with his ridiculous flailing punches, out-striking Nogueira at points in that fight, is the equivalent of Ethan Hawke’s character in Gattaca, the genetic reject, beating out all of the test-tube supermen. Hard work will always overcome talent when talent refuses to work hard.

There’s no reason Bader can’t do what Brilz did, only better. Bader isn’t much more of a boxer, but he hits really, really hard. The reports are that Nogueira has had an awful training camp for this fight, and there’s no reason not to believe that a man so enrobed in mediocrity in the face of ability won’t continue to underperform. If Nogueira comes in sharp, he should be able to out-box Bader and outwork him when he gets taken down, probably finding a submission in the second or third round. However, with the world being the way it actually is, exper Nogueira to look bad, and for Bader to look like he trained his ass off, roughing up an out-of-shape Nogueira badly.

Bader can get a stoppage, but the question is how long does it take him to seize control of the fight. If Nogueira flags early and Bader gets a chance to really land while he still has some juice, he’ll TKO Nogueira. If Nogueira makes a fight of it early, and forced Bader to muscle his way out of some bad positions, then Bader will be shot by the third round and we’ll be treated to the always embarrassing spectacle of two top-level fighters flailing around while completely running on empty, looking like KOTC rejects. Ryan Bader by TKO round 2.

Chris Lytle (-140) vs. Matt Serra (+120)

Chris Lytle has gotten hit in the head too many times. His wild style has gotten him a lot of bonus checks, but he’s very much a diminished fighter. He’s been getting beat up at points by much worse fighters than Matt Serra, and fighting with no gameplan other than “get buckwild and throw hays” is not going to get one very far against a fighter as defensively sound as Serra.

Serra, for all his pedigree as a grappler, has never been much of a submission threat in MMA. He’s hard to deal with on the floor, and can take positions pretty well, but he doesn’t have a very dangerous guard, and he rarely takes over a fight on the floor and gets his strangle on. His most potent offensive weapons remain his fists, despite the fact that his striking technique consists of nothing more than throwing hammers as hard as he possibly can and hoping opponents like Karo Parisyan, Frank Trigg, and Georges St. Pierre will run into them. Lytle can be relied upon to take lots of punches he should have easily avoided, given the level of boxing craftsmanship he can show when he wants to, so place your bets now on the clash between Serra’s KO power and Lytle’s ungodly chin.

It’s always distressing to see a fight like this, where one fighter could clearly win if he fought to his own best interests, but instead throws away a fight out of sheer thoughtlessness. If Lytle decided to fight for a W instead of a bonus check, and simply play Fancy Dan, he could out-point Serra and his Liliputian reach, but he won’t. Don’t be shocked if Lytle gets KO’d for the first time in his career as his aging chin runs straight into Serra’s overhand right. Even without a finish, Serra should be in control of a hapless Lytle throughout most of the fight. Matt Serra by decision.

Whoever hung Serra at +120 must not have watched Lytle’s recent fights. He’s won, but he has not been impressive at all, and he’s gotten hit way too much. Lytle is fading and Serra has the right skills to beat him again.

Evan Dunham (-240) vs. Sean Sherk (+190)

Sean Sherk is a man without a nation. He craves the adoration of the fans, but knows that he can’t get it with his positive steroid test and wrestling style. He’s striven to please the masses by fighting to his own detriment in a pure boxing style, a ridiculous endeavor, despite his excellent technique, because of his T-rex wingspan and complete lack of punching power. When a fighter repeatedly does this sort of thing in fights, it’s best to regard it as a permanent psychological defect, as forever hoping he’ll learn from his mistakes leads to disappointment far more often than not. Even a Sherk in top form would have serious trouble with Evan Dunham, who is almost assuredly THE breakout fighter of 2010.

Expect Dunham to take Sherk apart on the feet and do enough on the floor should he get taken down to easily cruise a decision win. Dunham has high-powered offense, especially with his submissions, so he could finish off Sherk if Sherk gets put in a really bad position, but it’s very difficult to get Sherk out of the cage unless you can completely dominate him like a GSP or BJ Penn. Evan Dunham by decision.

Melvin Guillard (-160) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+140)

Neither one of these men is a great fighter, but each is well worth watching for their outstanding virtues. Guillard is as fast and explosive a lightweight as you’ll see, capable of ending a fight on a moment’s notice with a variety of dangerous strikes. Stephens is a contender for P4P the hardest puncher in the sport. The amount of power he generates in each strike is mind-boggling. The fact that he did a complete hammerjob on Sam Stout, one of the most bulletproof and indestructible fighters around says all that need be said.

Guillard has struggled with a complete lack of in-ring intelligence, and, while he’s improved in this respect while training under MMA mastermind Greg Jackson, he still handicaps himself with poor decisions at times. This is especially likely in the fight with Stephens, as it will play straight into his fighter’s ego. It’s always difficult for a fighter to admit to themselves that they don’t want any part of an opponent’s game, that he’s much better than they are in that area and they cannot, even with months of preparation, engage their opponent there and win more often than not. This is understandable, of course, as only someone with supreme self-confidence will be able to have any level of success in a sport like MMA.

Guillard regards himself as a striker, and most opponents cannot stand up to his firepower. It’s very unlikely that he comes into this fight thinking about how he needs to fight for takedowns, as Stephens isn’t much scratch off his back, or that engaging in firefights with Stephens will likely lead to a knockout loss. Simply put, most pro fighters would trade punches with Godzilla rather than admit they are overmatched on the feet, so you can expect Guillard to try to knock out Stephens and probably get slept himself. Guillard has the speed and power to bust up Stephens who, for all his punching power, isn’t really an outstanding kickboxer, but it’s simply a case of Stephens being able to deal with Guillard’s punches much better than Guillard can absorb those of Stephens. Jeremy Stephens by KO round 1.

I’ll take Stephen’s KO power all day at +140.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

C.B. Dollaway (-270) vs. Joe Doerksen (+260)

It is amazing that Doerksen has managed this late-career run of victories, let alone gotten a few fights in the UFC. This is a man that is extremely broken down from a long career of fighting, and more or less looked like he had one foot in the grave in some of his recent fights. Yet he has somehow pulled out victories in them, and earned some of the cash he deserved for putting so much into the sport. He’s creaky and fragile, slow on his shots and quick to get rocked, and a young athletic guy like CB Dollaway should be able to dispose of him rapidly. CB does have an exploitable weakness for Doerksen, however, as he seems congenitally unable to identify impending submission attempts until they are fully locked on. Doerksen will likely get smashed and booted from the UFC, but if CB takes him down and somehow drives his head super-deep into a choke for the tap to the veteran, it wouldn’t be too surprising. All CB really has to do is get physical with Doerksen, work some takedowns and just make it rough, and before too long Doerksen’s fragile body will give out on him and the fight will be over. CB Dollaway by TKO, round 1.

Joey Beltran (+125) vs. Matt Mitrione (-150)

What a horrible matchup. This is probably the least amount of combined skill in the ring in the UFC since…well since the last time either of these men had a fight. They both existed to test fighters that were in the UFC for reasons other than fighting ability (Rolls Gracie, Kimbo Slice) and now cannot be cut because they won those fights. It does make a certain kind of sense, from that viewpoint, to make them fight each other to eliminate more of the wastage. Mitrione is a much bigger man and will probably just muscle his way to a stoppage over an exhausted smaller man later in the fight, 1997 style. Neither man really belongs in the UFC and certainly not on TV. Matt Mitrione by TKO round 2.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Pat Audinwood (+270) vs. Thiago Tavares (-300)

Remember when Thiago Tavares debuted against Jason Black and looked like a complete phenom that was ready to take over the entire division? Or how he followed that up with a really game performance against Tyson Griffin, looking for all the world like a super-gifted rookie who just needed some more seasoning to achieve greatness? Well, expectations for Tavares have continued their downward trajectory to the point where he’s lucky to still be in the UFC. Audinwood is a pretty good fighter, but he’s also extremely lucky to be in the UFC. He’s picked up a few wins, but none of them have been massively impressive, and he hasn’t shown anything like the ability to really compete on the UFC level at this point in his career. Against Aaron Riley, his original opponent, Audinwood might have looked impressive and really gotten a foothold in the Zuffa promotion. Against Tavares, Audinwood’s grappling bead-and-butter will be ashes in his mouth, as Tavares will run rampant on the floor and recapture some of the hype he once had. Thiago Tavares by submission round 1.

Steve Lopez (EVEN) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)

Waylon Lowe will endear himself to no-one with an infinite series of takedowns and lukewarm offense against a fighter that cannot muster enough offense or defense to stop him from doing so. Waylon Lowe by decision.

T.J. Grant (-155) vs. Julio Paulino (+140)

TJ Grant is really coming into his own in his role as a divisional gatekeeper. He’s perfect for the job, with well-rounded talents and no small amount of toughness, with just enough character to provide moments of amusement (hey he has a cool beard! Neat!) while fans are getting snacks in the mostly-empty arena before the televised portion of the card. Grant is well-rounded and talented, but simply doesn’t have any superstar level skills to make him stand out in the crowd.

Paulino is a fun fighter, because he brawls and can hit pretty hard, but he’s not ready for the UFC and especially not ready for a guy like TJ Grant. Grant is tough enough not to fall apart if Paulino hits him with something good, he can throw leather back, and he far exceeds Paulino both in terms of wrestling and submission offense. Grant will be able to threaten Paulino from any position, and will be able to dominate him with wrestling as well. TJ Grant by submission, round 1.

Grant is the kind of fighter that can be money in the bank. He’s unspectacular, not a fan favorite, and not that great. That said, he’s very very average for the UFC, and can be relied upon to roll over below-UFC talent.

Mark Hunt (-225) vs. Sean McCorkle (+190)

It’s hard to believe this fight. Hunt hasn’t won a fight since 2006 and is on a five-fight losing streak. His most notable achievement in the last several years is stopping eating long enough to make the 265 pound cutoff. McCorkle has never done anything of note in MMA other than being an absolutely enormous man. It’s shocking he can make the heavyweight cutoff, such is his size. Hunt will clearly be the better striker, but Hunt’s ground game and wrestling has always been complete crap, so if McCorkle is smart he will just bowl over the Kiwi and look for the tried-and-true keylock. McCorkle is no submission ace, but the size difference should be enough to give him a big advantage on the floor.

The reality is that Mark Hunt isn’t even six feet tall. With a decent diet and training, he should be competing at middleweight. Instead, he eats whatever he wants and competes as an obese heavyweight or superheavyweight. McCorkle is approximately two stories tall and will probably spend time in the Sauna, in addition to careful dieting, to make 265. If anyone has done any gameplanning for the man at all, he’ll be trying to put his weight on Hunt and tire him out and muscle him around.

The other factor working against Hunt in this fight is that he hasn’t competed in well over a year, while McCorkle has been pretty active in 2010. Hunt may have lost a lot of weight in training, but training is not at all the same thing as live competition, and he may not be used to the physiological realities of a body that is 40 pounds lighter. Ring rust is very real, and MMA fans have seen time and again that it can take a fighter quite a while to adjust to their “new” body when they drop a weight class, which is essentially what Hunt has done here. Don’t expect much from either man or this fight, as it will certainly be quite ugly, even by the standards of heavyweight MMA. Sean McCorkle by decision.

McCorkle is not a good fighter by any means, but he’s being undervalued here against a fighter that doesn’t really give a damn about MMA and hasn’t won a fight in years.

My Plays:

.5 u on Mirko Crocop at (+225) to win 1.13u
1u on Matt Serra at (+120) to win 1.2u
2u on Jeremy Stephens at (+140) to win 2.8u
1.55u on TJ Grant at (-155) to win 1u
1u on Sean McCorkle at (+190) to win 1.9u