By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
After this event my General Public Prediction Record remains at an undistinguished 26W-16L-1NC, mostly due to the unpredictable win of “King Mo” and the unfortunate fluke injury to Cyborg.
I went 1-2 on my wagers, lowering my Public Bet History to a career loss of 2.9 units. Again, Cyborg not eating his Wheaties cost me, as in the few seconds the fight had to develop, it looked like I had called it properly. Losing money on Yuki Kondo’s loss was just a result of the wrong call. Whenever one bets, one has to make some assumptions, and I made the wrong ones in this case. I knew that Kondo was a faded version of his former self, but the fight that developed showed Kondo really has very little left in the way of passion. It looked like a sparring match.
When you bet that a declining fighter still has enough “in the tank” to beat inferior competition (more on that when I cover Kimbo vs. Shamrock), you take a risk, and that risk didn’t pan out for me this time. However, over a large number of fights, I still believe I made the correct play. In fact, had Cyborg not broken his arm, and gone on to win the fight (as I still think he would, especially given his poor training and health) I would have been positive for the event, and moving into the black.
A couple of fighters really impressed me in this event.
Muhammad “King Mo” Lawal looked like a natural fighter, striking well if not technically. He showed good aggression and instincts. If he continues to be ‘developed’ instead of just taking on a Jimmy Ambriz role of losing fights and picking up paychecks, he could be a quality fighter at 205 lbs.
If we saw all Xande has to offer, his MMA career is going to be nasty, brutish, and short. Not to put undue pressure on the finish, but not being able to work his ground game against such feeble opposition and then gassing out is what the BJJ phenom is going to bring to MMA… I’ll pass, thanks.
Santiago and Masvidal were the most impressive and most well-rounded fighters of the night. Both also train at the near-mythical American Top Team. Coincidence? I think not.
Kazuhiro Nakamura seems poised to continue his bento-box mediocrity at a new weight class. A surprising fate for a rare creature – a talented Japanese fighter in the heavier weight classes.
If Sengoku events continue to fizzle as badly as this one did, I don’t expect to be writing about the promotion much longer. Speaking of endangered promotions, EliteXC is just around the corner, so get ready.
