By Nicholas Bailey (nbailey@mmaratings.net)
Salutations everyone. I’m sorry for my absence, and I’ll start picking up everything I’ve missed during my vacation tomorrow. WEC 36 is kind of a blah event, with lots of heavy favorites, but that’s what’s required for shocking upsets, so it may turn out to be important. There’s a lot of talent here, and the ridiculous drama surrounding the Filho/Sonnen fight should provide fodder for amusement, however the fight turns out.
I made a tidy little profit on UFC 90, although I included Rich Clementi in too many of my parlays, preventing a blowout win. Regrets must also be expressed for not betting on Cigano, but I had no action on Werdum either, so that’s something. I will put up a piece on MMA wagering, including parlays, sometime soon.
Mike Thomas Brown (+425) vs. Urijah Faber (-575)
Brown isn’t likely to sub Faber and he isn’t likely to knock him out. In a 5 round fight he can’t outlast him, either. Both of these guys are strong top-position grapplers, and Faber is the better wrestler so he’ll be the one on top. Brown is a good grappler, but has been finished by guys with unusual styles and unpredictable attacks, which is pretty much Faber’s M.O. I expect Faber will find some way to wear Mike down and submit him before 25 minutes are up. Faber demonstrated improved standup in his last fight, but I think that could actually work against him in this fight. Against Pulver, the fact that Faber’s standup was anything aside from embarrassing was a big surprise, and Pulver couldn’t get past Faber’s speed, even though Faber’s repertoire of strikes was fairly limited. Mike Brown is coming into this fight knowing Faber can jab, and he has 25 minutes of footage on it to watch and develop a gameplan for. Mike’s best chance for victory may be landing a big shot or cutting Faber open, but that’s a pretty remote chance, really. Faber is still improving in leaps and bounds, and is (rightly) a prohibitive favorite in this fight. Faber by submission round 4.
Paulo Filho (-140) vs. Chael Sonnen (+120)
Well this is a real mess now, isn’t it? In their first meeting Filho struggled mightily, just as he did with Joe Doerkson, with someone he couldn’t just throw to the ground and get on top of through his raw, freakish strength. Sonnen tattoo’d his face with a basic jab, and ground him up from the top. Filho, however, stayed game and eventually exploited Sonnen’s weak sub defense. Realistically, Filho should be expected to be able to do the same thing here, since Sonnen isn’t a flash-finisher type, and Filho can finish with a submission if Sonnen leaves himself out of position even for a moment, plus the slim chance that Sonnen stands in front of one of Filho’s flailing haymakers and gets dropped like a ton of bricks. However, with Filho in and out of rehab, and coming into the fight massively overweight, it’s very difficult to know what is going on. Even with Filho out of shape, he can still sub Sonnen, and, despite the enormous success he had on the feet in their last fight, Sonnen has said his gameplan here is to take Filho down and GnP him, possibly the worst possible gameplan for this fight. Filho by submission round 1.
With the odds on Sonnen not very favorable at this point and the massive number of unknowns, I would recommend staying far, far away from this fight. I have a play on Filho here because I placed it a while ago, based on the fact that the odds didn’t change at all, despite the event being pushed back two months. I figured it was two more months for Filho to rehabilitate himself and prepare for the fight, which had to be in his favor, and if the previous odds were fair, then betting at them with two more months of training for Filho would be a good play. However, with Filho looking like warmed-over death at the weigh-ins, this was not the right play.
Leonard Garcia (+185) vs. Jens Pulver (-200)
This has the potential to be the most exciting fight of the night, although Faber will probably find a way to put on yet another unbelievable performance of hustle. Garcia is a grappler with more balls than brains, so he spends most of his fights simply trading shots on the feet, where he is untechnical and eats too many punches. Pulver is a similarly handicapped fighter, choosing to fight like a one-dimensional boxer even when he’d be best served to use his excellent wrestling and protect what is a suspect chin. Garcia’s chin is fantastic, and he has power in his hands, although he has trouble landing quality shots at times because he swings so wildly. Pulver has a much sharper style, and has historically packed a great deal of punching power. Pulver should be able to work a more technically classy boxing game and simply work Garcia over for the victory, but do not be shocked if Garcia manages to sock Jens’ chin off and folds him up. I expect this fight to consist entirely of standup work, but I must pay lip service to the fact that Garcia has a lot of submission wins and Jens can be submitted, although his wrestling usually lets him stay out of trouble. Jens slowed down in the later rounds of his most recent fights, but Garcia has lost both times he’s seen the third round, so I say the battle of the gas is a wash. Jens Pulver by decision.
The odds are creeping up in favor of Jens. If the line moves much further, I may make a play on Garcia just because of the staying power he has, which Jens lacks. Jens has lost all of his protracted standup battles in the last several years, but he was also fighting much sharper strikers than Garcia. It’s sad, but betting against fighters going into their ‘legacy years’ is usually the right play.
Nissen Osterneck vs. Jake Rosholt
Rosholt is a hot young prospect in a dangerous fight here. Osterneck should be a good showcase fight for Jake, and definitely will give him a chance to test himself and show that he deserves the hype. Osterneck has absolutely no name recognition, but is a legitimate fighter who can win if Jake makes a mistake. Still, Rosholt should be able to take him down, stay on top, and beat him up with his potent GnP. Jake Rosholt by TKO round 2.
Donald Cerrone vs. Rob McCullough
This is a very interesting fight. Cerrone is a very hot prospect with a gaudy record and a lot of experts are predicting he will walk right through Rob McCullough. Cerrone has a nasty, finish-heavy submission game for MMA- the kind of sudden game that won’t win mundials, but will end MMA fights, similar to Miguel Torres. He (supposedly) has a scorching muay thai game as well, although we haven’t seen this, since everyone he’s fought has tried to take him down, only to be quickly submitted, usually within the first 2 minutes. Razor Rob is a decent kickboxer with good legkicks, good power, and an excellent chin. Despite the predicted walkover, I like Rob’s chances in this fight. He’s very upset by his emasculation at the hands of Varner, and he’s training his ass off for this fight. Cerrone typically just walks through his opponents, and he definitely won’t be able to do that with Rob, and I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep up in the face of adversity. Someone who usually submits his opponents in under two minutes may just collapse when someone can take his shots and hit him back, and we have no idea what kind of gas Cerrone has. Take that with a grain of salt, since, as I said, most experts are predicting a walkover, but it’s not my job to just repeat what other experts say, and I see this somewhat differently. Rob McCullough by TKO round 2.
I have a play on Rob at even odds (dating back to before this event was postponed), which was obviously a miscalculation, given how strongly the line has moved against him at this point. I have corrected for this miscalculation to some degree by including Cerrone, at favorable odds, in some parlays.
Other fights of note are the Yoshiro Maeda vs. Rani Yayha and Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Brookins fights. Rani has been a huge disappointment to me recently, despite his virtuosity on the ground, and Maeda had the best performance of his career in his loss to Miguel Torres. Although he can submit anyone, I think Rani’s poor gas and impotent standup spell a loss to the well-rounded Maeda, and I have a bit of money on it as well. Jose Aldo put on a blistering performance in embarrassing Pequeno, and I expect more fireworks and another domination in this fight. Aldo is a massively talented young star who will almost assuredly be competing for the 145lb title within 12 months.
My Plays:
1u Yoshihiro Maeda to win .8u
1u Paulo Filho to win .62u
1u Rob McCullough to win 1u
.5u Parlay Faber, Cerrone, and Rosholt to win .78u
.5u Parlay Faber, Cerrone, Maeda, and Rosholt to win 1.9u
