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WEC 47 has flown beneath the radar, probably because the tallest guy on the main card is about 5’9″, but hardcores know that good things come in small packages. In this case there is a bevy of bantamweight action, with new champs defending, former champs striving for a return to glory, and prospects trying to make a name for themselves.
While many of the main card fights seemed destined to go to a decision, the matchups are such that it’s the kind of decision where both fighters attack attack attack, but at every turn their opponent manages to hang on and continue the fight. If that doesn’t sound like your idea of good television, stay tuned to versus and watch a caveman throw a spear into a buffalo, or whatever it is that those hunting programs televise.
Champ Brian Bowles (-250) vs. Dominick Cruz (+200) (for bantamweight title)
Cruz doesn’t have finishing power. Bowles does. That’s the most important thing to remember going into this fight. Cruz is a talented, impressive fighter, but MMA is dominated by effective offense. This is a sport where it’s possible to “score” so much that your opponent never gets a chance to go off defense. There are no kickoffs, your opponent is not guaranteed a chance to be at-bat. If you can seal the deal, you can win. Dominick Cruz has won his high-level fights by out-working his opponents and making them miss when attempting to return fire after he lands a few point-scoring shots. Bowles has won fights by crushing his opponents with his punching power or ripping their heads off with guillotines. In a five-round fight, the chances are better for Bowles to finish Cruz off with that kind of attack than for Cruz to out-class him for twenty-five minutes.
While Bowles is the clear favorite, there are some interesting tests for him in this fight. It’s always fascinating to see someone go beyond the fifteen-minute mark for the first time, which could be illuminating for both fighters. Cruz enjoys a range advantage with his height and smoother footwork, and his kicks and technical kickboxing may give Bowles some trouble. It will also be very interesting to see how Bowles reacts to wearing the title. Some fighters get cocky, some wilt under the pressure, some guys just can’t handle the intense press schedules that interfere with training, and some train like madmen in order to stay on top of the heap. Hopefully these two do more than just bang it out so we can see how the wrestling game matches up, but either way, there’s a ton to be learned here. Brain Bowles by submission round 4.
Joseph Benavidez (+285) vs. Miguel Torres (-325)
Torres is a fierce competitor, and it’s going to be a scary thing to see him return after losing the belt. Benavidez has already impressively bounced back from his first loss and shown the power many doubted he had in his game, but this is still going to be a very tough fight for him.
Working against Benavidez is the fact that he is legally a midget and weighs approximately eighty pounds. He may be incredibly fast, but he is still giving up a massive reach advantage to Torres, who can actually work a jab when he is fighting intelligently and not just getting mad and trying to bang it out in a phone booth. Secondly, despite his recent knockout, Torres is a much more offensively dynamic fighter, representing a massive knockout and submission threat, while Benavidez has traditionally relied on hustle more than anything to establish dominance in a fight. Torres is a very game competitor that can fight hard and score effective offense from any position, while Benavidez will struggle to shut down his opponent’s long-range striking and aggressive submissions.
Working in Torres’ favor is the fact that he can rarely stop a takedown, giving Benavidez the opportunity to get in on his legs and work on top. With the sprint pace of three five minute rounds giving Torres a foreshortened amount of time to work his offense, when he’s traditionally asserted his dominance as a fight goes longer, a first round that goes to Benavidez due to a takedown and some top control could really put the pressure on Miguel to place his stamp on the fight. Miguel’s reach and size advantage will aid him somewhat, as Benavidez will have to use his speed to shoot in from far outside his own striking range in order to get past Torres’ strikes, and once he’s grabbed a hold of the former champ, Miguel, despite being built like an 8th grade cross-country star, will have a lot of size on him to bully him around.
This fight really depends on how much Torres has learned and how well he can control his emotions. As he’s shown in the past, he can be incredibly nasty when he chooses to use his length to land serious jabs with his shoulder behind them, which would be an absolute nightmare for a dwarf like Benavidez. However, if Miguel gets angry and tries to just exchange hooks, as he did successfully against Mizugaki, that’s letting Benavidez in close enough to get takedowns and impress the judges in scrambles. Torres has a cut-throat enough submission game that he could win the fight there, too, but there’s no reason to let Benavidez in that particular door if he can keep it shut by working diligently at range. This is Torres’ fight to win, and could be a good demonstration of how badly WEC in general and Joseph Benavidez in particular need the 125lb division to get off the ground. Miguel Torres by decision.
Jens Pulver (+170) vs. Javier Vazquez (-185)
The sob story in this fight is supposed to be Jens Pulver, the beloved veteran warhorse that’s on his last legs on the way to the glue factory, fighting for the respect and money he never got in his prime. However it shouldn’t be overlooked that Vazquez has been around the sport a very long time as well, and has arguably suffered an undeservedly cruel fate because of poor judging. Jens’ downfall is his own doing, adopting a style that no longer matches his physical capabilities and wearing down his own body with abuse, but Vazquez has been victimized by a third party.
Jens still has some power in his hands, but his boxing isn’t as crisp as it once was and he isn’t durable at all, meaning he cannot really afford to exchange strikes since almost anything with power behind it can put him out of a fight at this point. Vazquez isn’t an elite striker, but he does have enough power in his hands to hurt opponents he can hit. Furthermore, Pulver’s biggest stylistic weakness has always been submissions, and Vazquez is a very slick grappler. It would be no shock at all if Pulver threw himself into another submission like in the Josh Grispi fight, especially since Vazquez is very aggressive with his submissions and will meet him halfway. All in all, unless he can blow out Vazquez’s knee or put big power on him early, this is going to be another sad humiliation for Jens Pulver. Javier Vazquez by submission round 2.
L.C. Davis (+115) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (-125)
Both of these men have the distinction of owning contentious split-decision wins over Javier Vazquez, who is actually billed above them on this card. Both of these fighters have kinks to work out in their games, sharing the same weakness of lukewarm offense. This fight is going to come down to who can get top position, since they have similar top-control games. Taurosevicius should be the bigger, stronger man, as he’s shown some real physical power in his lifts and slams, but he’s also shown a tendency to wear out in the third round from all that exertion. He should be able to carry the first two rounds, but he’ll be holding on for dear life in the third. Taurosevicius by decision.
Karen Darabedyan (-255) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+215)
Karen is an exciting prospect and a bit of a darling after his victory over Rob McCullough. Palaszewski is a local hero that always puts in an honest day’s work in his fights, with a very blue-collar style. It seems that the cat is finally out of the bag on the fact that Bart isn’t that great a fighter, and the lines reflect that. Karen is very raw and could have been much more dominating in the McCullough fight if he’d had more experience and preparation, but he’s got enough to handle Palaszewski in this fight. Standing punches punctuated with takedowns and ground and pound will be the order of the day. Karen doesn’t have the kind of offensive firepower it takes to put Palaszewski away, since Bart is as tough as they come, but this will be a one-sided fight with Palaszewski losing every round unless he can get some serious home cooking from the judges. Darabedyan by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Chad George (+400) vs. Scott Jorgensen (-500)
Jorgensen had a real coming-out party against the always-tough Takeya Mizugaki, showing improved boxing and a clearly strategic fighting style of the sort that is necessary to beat elite fighters. That intelligent style is important in separating Jorgensen from a guy like Jorge Masvidal, who would enter a tune-up fight like this cocky and unprepared and have a good chance of losing. Instead, it’s very likely Jorgensen treated this as the most important fight of his career, and diligently worked on adding new dimensions to his game.
Extra dimensions is what George explicitly lacks. His game consists of takedowns and offense from on top. Against fighters that can not do a decent job of defending themselves, this will set up a finish, but as George has stepped up in competition, he’s struggled to really dominate and take control of a fight with his offense. Against Jorgensen, who has a very solid wrestling background, George will struggle to even get the takedowns in the first place, let alone work effective offense with them. Scott outclasses him on the feet, so expect this fight to be a demonstration of exactly how much more progress Jorgensen has made on his boxing, unless George shoots straight into Jorgensen’s favored front-headlock series and sets himself up for a nasty Cromado guillotine. Scott Jorgensen by KO round 1.
Erik Koch (+260) vs. Chad Mendes (-250)
Chad Mendes is a fantastic wrestler. Erik Koch is an okay grappler. In 2010 we know how this story ends. A wrestler with solid training for MMA will grind and crush all but the most elite submission fighters. Chad Mendes by decision.
Danny Castillo (-170) vs. Anthony Pettis (+155)
Danny Castillo looks great in spurts in fights, and that was enough to win a questionable decision over a now-elite fighter in Scott Jorgensen, but the headbanded hero also struggles mightily when he shouldn’t. Castillo’s loss to Roller should make clear where he stands: a good but not great fighter in a division full of good fighters looking to stand out. Castillo earns most of his points by forcing a takedown, getting on top, working some point-scoring damage, and then repeating the process. Against Pettis, he’s going to be in real trouble because of Pettis’ guard skills. Pettis will have a slight advantage on the feet, and should be able to threaten more on the ground than Castillo can with his pounding attack. Castillo doesn’t have huge defensive liabilities in the grappling department, but both of his losses have been to submissions, so don’t be surprised if he gets out of position and gets caught.
Unfortunately, this fight may become another example of the poor state of judging in MMA today. Winning rounds off your back is rarely possible in the eyes of judges, so Castillo may get rounds based purely on takedowns, even if he is on the defensive in top position for most of the round. With that caveat, Pettis should have more successful offense than Castillo, and thus should be the winner. Anthony Pettis by decision.
This is the only bet I recommend on this card, unless you want to parlay the solid favorites like Garcia, Paixao, Jorgensen, and Mendes. Again, judging in MMA is reliably unreliable, so Pettis may truly win the fight but not be scored the victor, so I’m only advising a normal play.
Leonard Garcia (-450) vs. George Roop (+375)
Leonard Garcia seems to have lost down to an appropriate level of competition here. Roop, on the other hand, seems to have failed forward as a method of continuing his career. Despite never looking like a high-caliber fighter, Roop’s continual weight changes have managed to put a veneer of relevance on an otherwise below-average career.
Garcia, despite having the gifts of natural submission defense, big power, and a rock-solid beard, fights in as ridiculous and self-defeating a style as possible. When you get out-struck by a midget like Manny Gamburyan, even if it’s just for one round, it’s an embarrassment. Fortunately for Garcia, Roop has absolutely no tools to take care of Garcia’s screwball game, being unable to exploit his helicopter attacks or take him down and ride some control. Even if Garcia doesn’t land a big hay and put Roop on dream street, the judges will be sold by his aimless bashing on Roop’s defenses. Leonard Garcia by KO round 1.
Bendy Casimir (+215) vs. Ricardo Lamas (-250)
Ricardo Lamas may be fun to tease for sounding like the star of “Renegade,” but the guy is a pretty darn good fighter. Bendy Casimir is a skilled grappler, but he just isn’t ready for the kind of consummate game Lamas brings into the cage. Unless Lamas makes a big error and goes underneath Casimir, he will win this on the feet or on top of Bendy. Lamas by decision.
Courtney Buck (+245) vs. Fredson Paixao (-265)
Buck got another invitation to the dance because he did the WEC a “favor” and took a fight on extremely short notice (in the process getting a huge opportunity for himself) and got his brains bashed out. However, the WEC matchmaking team is not operating out of the kindness of their hearts, and rather than a soft touch, Buck has gotten a terrible style matchup to help build up a more preferred fighter.
Buck does his best work by accumulating damage and hurting guys with punches. Unfortuantely for him, Paixao is a complte stonehead and will walk through the kind of power Buck has. Paixao is still developing as a fighter, but he will just have too many advantages in this fight, absorbing Buck’s punishment, taking it to the ground, and working his submission game. Paixao by submission round 1.
My Play
1u on Anthony Pettis at (+155) to win 1.55u
