Mar
06
2010
0

Fight Picks and Predictions for Sengoku 12: A Battered Promotion Creaks On

By Nicholas Bailey

Go ahead and gnash your teeth because HDnet has decided to run Sengoku 12 on a FIVE DAY tape delay. Takes one back to the old days of PRIDE. Much like PRIDE at the end of its run, Sengoku is a promotion that has lost much of its talent and top draws, and is simply staggering on with what it has left, much as PRIDE did with its “Kamikaze” event (which also featured Nakao, for trivia’s sake).

However, since nobody bothers to pay smaller fighters any money, even a ragged promotion can secure the services of top-flight featherweights, so Sengoku 12 does feature some very relevant prospects.


Champ Jorge Santiago (+130) vs. Mamed Khalidov (-150) (for Sengoku middleweight title)
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In their last tilt, Santiago’s chin let him down yet again, as he suffered one of the more embarrassing knockouts of the year. It’s been said time and again, but it’s true. Santiago has A+ offensive skills and can really beat guys up or work them on the ground, but he just doesn’t have the toughness to stick around if he gets touched up. That’s what got him washed out of the UFC and it’s what doomed his title reign to be a very short one.

Khalidov is exactly the kind of fighter Santiago does not need to go anywhere near. He has a very active striking offense, from any position, and he has good power in everything he throws. Unless Santiago can get on a roll and put Khalidov away (which is possible, given Santiago’s offensive gifts) he’s eventually going to get caught with something with all the strikes flying around, and this will be over. Mamed Khalidov by knockout round 2.


Akihiro Gono (-350) vs. Diego Gonzalez (+285)

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Akihiro Gono has apparently been re-animated after Dan Hornbuckle killed him, and his undead corpse is on a two-fight win streak, including a complete crushing of uninspired veteran Hayato Sakurai. Gonzalez is a good fighter, but his standout skillset is his grappling, where Gono is a hidden gem. It’s all too easy to forget that it wasn’t that long ago that Gono handled current wunderkind Gegard Mousasi on the ground. Gono may not be a big hitter, but he can win this fight on the feet with his defense and on the ground he can probably run game on Gonzalez. Gono takes a while to get started, but he’ll get this fight over with once he’s warmed up. Akihiro Gono by submission, round 2.


Maximo Blanco (-210) vs. Chang Hyun Kim (+185)

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You never know what you’re going to get from Maximo Blanco. That makes him basically the opposite of Chang Hyun “armbar” Kim, (one of the most perfunctory and unimaginative nicknames for any fighter) who wins by armbar as often as he can. Blanco is a hulk with real physical power matched only by his wildness. The guy seriously needs to calm down and stop freaking out in the ring, or he’ll get DQ’d again for soccer kicking someone that he’s already clearly beaten. All this wildness will be too much for Kim, who would be best suited to just close his eyes and hope the end comes early and Blanco stops when he should. Maximo Blanco by KO round 1. (Or DQ Loss)


Tomonari Kanomata (+525) vs. Marlon Sandro (-600)

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Marlon Sandro needs to improve his striking technique, but he’s lights-out on the ground, and he was born with natural punching power. He can bash Kanomata unconscious or he can choke him out. Either way this should be little more than a tune-up fight for Sandro to test out new stand up skills. Marlon Sandro by TKO round 1.


Henry “Sentoryu” Miller (+600) vs. Yoshihiro Nakao (-900)

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Many may be surprised to learn that Henry Miller has actually stayed pretty busy recently, with many fights in the regional “Heat” promotion, even winning a few of his fights. That won’t be the case here. Nakao isn’t great, but Miller was too broken down for sumo wrestling before he even started fighting. Nakao is going to actually look good here. Nakao by KO round 1.


Nick Denis (-220) vs. Yuji Hoshino (+190)

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Yuji Hoshino is a very nasty grappler with a big power game from on top. This is a good example of what the guy is capable of. Nick Denis is an up and coming fighter that still has a lot of growing to do, but currently has good power and a good chin. That’s bad news for Hoshino, who really isn’t the most durable guy around.

If Denis can avoid takedowns and put power on Hoshino, he’ll win this impressively. However, if Hoshino can get a takedown, he’ll probably be able to crank Denis’ arm off. With Denis not being a fantastic wrestler or grappler, it seems pretty likely that he could fall victim to a nasty grappler like Hoshino. Yuji Hoshino by submission, round 1.

Hoshino is a great bet here because of the style matchup, but he has a very clear way to lose and Denis will be headed directly for that, so limit your exposure.


Kiuma Kunioku (+285) vs. Leonardo Santos (-325)

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If you don’t know how good Leo Santos is at jiu-jitsu, this should be illustrative. Kiuma Kunioku may not be on the average fight fan’s radar, but the guy’s career stretches back to the very beginning, with wins over Frank Shamrock and Funaki. However, that kind of veteranship also lends itself to broken-down journeyman status, which is exactly what Kunioku is at this point. He’s skilled so there could be some good grappling exchanges, but you should expect a Santos submission win to appear inevitable. Leonardo Santos by submission, round 1.


Kyung Ho Kang (+225) vs. Shigeki Osawa (-285)

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Fans might remember Shigeki Osawa as the Japanese guy with all the gangster tattoos that can wrestle like nobody’s business. Osawa is all that, and a very talented prospect at featherweight, but as his loss to Ronnie Mann showed, he has a lot of work to do to become a complete fighter, gassing out and getting whipped. However, Kang is not the kind of fighter that can push back that hard against a wrestler of Osawa’s caliber. This will be a good chance for Osawa to improve on his game. Shigeki Osawa by decision.

My Play:

1u on Yuji Hoshino at (+190) to win 1.9u

ufc-betting


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