Fight Picks and Predictions for WEC 48: Best Card of the Year

By Nicholas Bailey

WEC 48 is the product of Zuffa’s bizzare bicameral promotional structure, a bastard strategy that allows them to dominate the MMA material on two cable networks but also goes against the kind of relentless brand focus that has brought the UFC so much success. The fact that it is not technically a UFC event but will feature preliminary fights on Spike and the UFC’s broadcast team only further muddies the waters.

But none of this matters. Despite the fact that the audience will be the smallest for a Zuffa pay-per-view event in years, this card may be the strongest of the year. They have pulled out all the stops and put almost all their top talent on display here, and the result should be truly spectacular. This event is one that no fight fan will want to miss.


Champ Jose Aldo (-300) vs. Urijah Faber (+275) (for featherweight title)

Urijah Faber thrives in chaos. He’s the master of the scramble, being both incredibly fast and poised enough to take advantage of very unusual positions. He also has a brutally hard squeeze that lets him snatch up guillotines whenever possible and crank them for a finish even on skilled grapplers like Rafael Assuncao. Unfortuantely, getting into some chaos against Jose Aldo is a terrible idea.

Aldo is the most electric fighter around, capable of spectacularly ending a fight nearly instantaneously in a variety of ways. Faber can’t afford to fight his typical “wide open” style of flying around the cage, or he’ll get duck-hunt-sniped just like against Tyson Griffin and Mike Brown. In fact, despite his “improved standup” Faber cannot afford to stand with Aldo at all, or he’ll get torn apart.

The unfortunate reality for Faber is that he needs to be a more direct fighter and just go straight after takedowns, because he could actually win on the floor. The unfortunate part is that when Faber is just wrestling in a straight-ahead fashion, his takedowns aren’t that good. He can usually end up on top in scrambles or create a chaotic situation that puts an opponent off balance and lets him take them down, but when he’s just going to shoot a double, Aldo will stuff it just like he did to Mike Brown.

Aldo is Marlo Stansfield and Faber is Avon Barksdale. The game has changed, gotten more ruthless, but Faber just doesn’t know it yet. Jose Aldo by KO round 1.

Champ Benson Henderson (-115) vs. Donald Cerrone (-110) (for lightweight title)

We’ve seen this fight before, and this is a fast rematch. Then again, both of these guys are very young and can make huge improvements in the six months since their last tilt. Benson is still going to be able to outwrestle Cerrone and may threaten him with a guillotine. Cerrone is still going to be a better striker, but is still constitutionally incapable of following a gameplan or playing to his strengths. The question will still be how quickly Henderson can take Cerrone down, how much damage he can avoid, and how much work he can do on top without gassing out or falling into a submission.

With Benson improving and Cerrone still following the same stupid gameplan of “just fightin ya’ll” even against opponents he has an easy route to victory against (standing with Ed Ratcliff for three rounds before sinking in a submission? Why?) chances are that this will be a clearer decision in Benson’s favor. Cerrone caught Benson in multiple submissions he was later able to escape, so if Donald has been diligently working to improve his finishes on those subs, he could tap out the champ. Who thinks it’s more likely Cerrone has been diligently studying tape and learning counters to Hendersons escapes, and who thinks it’s more likely he’s been ridin’ 4-wheelers, shootin’ guns, and just scrappin’ in the gym? Benson Henderson by decision.

I take Benson at -115. Cerrone is super-talented, but he’s too much of a space case mentally and, like Leonard Garcia, explicitly ignores the instructions of Greg Jackson. Cerrone’s biggest weakness has long been his wrestling, and that’s Benson’s greatest strength. He has to be favored here.

Mike Brown (-700) vs. Manny Gamburyan (+500)

Manny Gamburyan was a midget at 155, and he’s undersized even at 145. He’s had outstanding success against lesser opposition, primarily because 145 in the WEC isn’t nearly as strong a weight class as 155 in the UFC, but he’s a solid fighter. Unfortunately, this is a horrible style matchup. He won’t be able to overpower a beast of an old man in Mike Brown, Brown won’t get uselessly stuck on his back, and on the feet Brown is much more accurate than Leonard Garcia, who still beat Manny on the feet for most of their fight.

Brown will be able to overpower Manny and bust him up on the feet, and that damage, combined with all the hard work of pumping blood to all those muscles will wear Manny down. This will be an impressive performance by the former champ that re-establishes him as an elite featherweight after the drubbing at the hands of Jose Aldo. Mike Brown by TKO round 3.

Anthony Njokuani (+115) vs. Shane Roller (-145)

Anthony Njokuani is no scam. That much is clear, with his masterful technical skills on the feet resulting in crushing wins against overhyped opponents in his last two fights, but the real question marks are his two losses. Falling to a submission to the ultra-slick Cerrone isn’t a big knock against a fighter, but against Benson Henderson Njokuani looked absolutely lost on the floor and was easily outwrestled.

Roller lost to Henderson, but in many ways he brings the same sort of offense. He’s a dominant wrestler with a nasty guillotine, and can just go directly at Njokuani’s weaknesses and try to end his hype.

This is a fight Njokuani could easily lose, and thus a great test for him. If he still has the same kind of glaring weaknesses that he had in the Benson Henderson fight, he will get absolutely handled by a big tough wrester like Shane Roller. On the other hand, if he is improved, even if he can’t stop Roller’s takedowns and just walk through him, he should be able to make Roller work hard for the takedowns, protect himself from Roller’s offense, and score on the feet.

Njokuani is definitely the more dynamic fighter, and if he can survive on the ground, he has a great chance of ending this on the feet at some point. If Benson could clean Roller’s clock (even with a fairly quick stoppage) then someone with Njokuani’s offensive potential can send him to the canvas in a lasting way. Anthony Njokuani by KO round 1.

The line opened with Njokuani at +165, which is a bit off. I’d take Njokuani at +115, but I’d sweat it. This is the kind of fight that could have huge momentum swings in very quick fashion, so bettors subject to bouts of nerves would be well-advised not to watch.

Antonio Banuelos (+195) vs. Scott Jorgensen (-245)

Scott Jorgensen, with his defeat of Mizugaki and complete emasculation of Chad George has announced himself as a top-flight fighter that shouldn’t be wasting his time with anything other than challenging the tip-top fighters in the division. His boxing has sharpened up dramatically, and his wrestling combined with his sick front headlock series that always ends with a nasty guillotine are serious, serious business.

The last time these two met, Banuelos was able to outwrestle Jorgensen in the first round, but gassed out hard, being out-pointed in the last two rounds before being given a gift decision. It’s time for Jorgensen to set the record straight, and he should have no trouble man-handling Banuelos at this point.

Jorgensen’s power and accuracy in his hands are much greater than when they last met, and he should be able to tag up Banuelos on the feet, only to transition into another guillotine when a desperation shot leaves Banuelos’ neck exposed. Scott Jorgensen by submission, round 1.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

Leonard Garcia (-145) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+115)

This is going to be a fun, fun fight. Leonard Garcia is constitutionally incapable of doing anything other than windmilling around with flailing punches that miss 99% of the time (and then getting taken down and doing nothing). For whatever reason, even when all these punches are blocked or miss by miles, judges are still impressed and give him rounds.

Chang Sung Jung is also fond of giant wild shots, although he’s much more accurate and can throw a variety of strikes, although virtually all of them are wild power shots. He’s also good enough on the ground to score points on top of Garcia if it goes to the floor and not be threatened by Garcia’s stagnant guard game.

Both of these guys are big power hitters with stone heads and a wild style. This should become a highly-entertaining slugfest, but Chang Sung Jung is not the kind of guy that will get oustruck by a midget like Manny Gamburyan, and has the gas tank to go hard for three rounds, key assets that Garcia lacks. It’s not clear why Garcia’s mental game is so bad. It’s possible he’s just not a sharp guy and, like Takanori Gomi can’t identify what is causing him to underperform, in which case he’ll probably never fix it, regardless of who is training him.

This fight will likely be competitive early on, with Chang Sung Jung taking over once he figures out the always-predictable Garcia’s plan of attack and timing, at which point he’ll take over and start bashing Garcia up. Jung has big power when he lands and is relentless, so we could see him batter Garcia to a TKO, but it’s more likely that the fight goes to a lopsided decision. Chang Sung Jung by decision.

This line opened at +165 for Jung, which is lunacy. He’s going to take Garcia apart. While +165 is the bees knees, he’s still a good play at any positive number, and I’d take him up to -130, personally.

Alex Karalexis (+400) vs. Anthony Pettis (-600)

Karalexis is making a career of beating up no-name fighters while headlining local shows and losing in bigger promotions, all while making good money without requiring being a good fighter. That’s the magic of what TUF and a little bit of savvy marketing can do for a guy’s career. Pettis is a vastly improved striker and can now tear Karalexis apart on the floor or simply by kicking him in the face and splitting his wig. This is a fight Thomas Hobbes would enjoy: Nasty, Brutish, and Short. Pettis by KO round 1.

PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)

Demetrious Johnson (+115) vs. Brad Pickett (-145)

Brad Pickett is a tough scrapper that’s never really lived up to the “one-punch” nickname or the associated Snatch-themed marketing that’s still with him from his Cage Rage days. He’s actually a better grappler than puncher, and has made real progress to become a solid fighter, but he may be in over his head now. Johnson may not have the experience and veteranship Pickett has, but he is a very talented young fighter that has shown a natural aptitude for all aspects of the game and will be able to dominate Pickett and his poor wrestling with physicality. If it comes down to a slugfest, Johnson hits harder, and if it goes to the floor, Johnson will be on top. This is a tough scrap either way, but Johnson has the advantage. Johnson by decision.

Johnson opened at +133, which I took for a play. I’d still recommend a play on him at +115. He’s a very talented prospect and will be a tough style matchup for Pickett.

Chad Mendes (-400) vs. Anthony Morrison (+300)

Chad Mendes is yet another homunculus with loads of hustle and skill from Team Alpha male, and Anthony Morrison holds Atlas-like the greatest nickname since the retirements of the “Snake Eater” and “Cannibal” monikers from the sport. “Cheesesteak” is just breathtaking in its simplicity and sheer awesomehood. Unfortunately for Morrison, while he is scrappy and athletic, he is not nearly the finished product Mendes is. Just as we saw Morrison get completely jobbed by a more experienced and refined fighter in former champ Mike Thomas Brown, Mendes has the skills to expose Morrison’s technical deficiencies, especially his porous ground game. With all the Team Alpha Male guys developing such fantastic squeezes, you can expect Morrison’s head to get lodged in a tight guillotine as soon as this fight hits the floor. Mendes by submission, round 1.

Takeya Mizugaki (-150) vs. Rani Yahya (+120)

Rani has some of the best pure BJJ in the game, and some of the worst standup. Mizugaki can be put in dangerous spots on the ground, but he’s a huge, physically powerful guy and very solid in every aspect of the game. Rani has improved his takedowns, but Mizugaki is going to be hard to take down, and will punish him with his striking. Rani is the kind of fighter that gets really desperate and gasses out when he can’t control a fight, so if Mizugaki can dominate the first round, the submission threat will almost certainly diminish greatly.

Misugaki should be able to use his takedown defense and striking to really bust up the fragile Rani and take command of this fight. Rani’s striking is too impotent to threaten Mizugaki’s trick chin, so Takeya can just wail away on the smaller fighter like a juggernaut. Mizugaki by TKO round 1.

This line opened at -110 for Mizugaki, which just seemed silly. It still represents a good bet at -150, so take it there too. Mizugaki is very solid and is being undervalued here.

Tyler Toner (+200) vs. Brandon Visher (-250)

This fight was actually supposed to happen at WEC 45, but Toner’s vision prohibited him from getting licensed, resulting in the hapless Courtney Buck getting stomped by Visher instead. Visher looked fantastic in that fight, but Toner is no Courtney Buck. Toner’s standup has made enormous improvements in the last year, notably in his three-minute drubbing of Shootboxing standout Kenichi Ogata, which is pretty impressive for a no-name fighter.

Toner believes he’s the more well-rounded fighter in this bout, and he’s right, but Visher’s punches are nothing to overlook, even if Toner throws more knees and kicks. This will be a tough scrap that takes its toll on both men. This is a fight that could easily go either way, with both men improving greatly between fights, which makes it very difficult to assess exactly how they will compare when they step into the cage. In MMA, the most reliable horse to back is usually the more versatile one. Toner has more options in this fight. Tyler Toner by TKO round 2.

My Plays:

1.1u on Mizugaki at (-110) to win 1u
1u on Demetrious Johnson at (+133) to win 1.33u
1u on Chang Sung Jung at (+165) to win 1.65u
1u on Anthony Njokuani at (+165) to win 1.65u
1.15u on Benson Henderson at (-115) to win 1u