Welter Wait Division: How to Break the 170-Pound Bottleneck, and Stir Up the Contenders “Mix”

By Raphael Garcia

The UFC welterweight division has become something akin to a wild mustang that is running wild awaiting some brave cowboy to break it in and take the reins. Ok, so maybe not a great analogy, but the fact remains that the 170-pound division is muddled at the top, and there doesn’t seem to be a break in the cluster coming any time soon. A number of questions need to be answered at the top of the division to shape exactly what will happen for the rest of 2012, and potentially the start of 2013.

Right now, we know we have two champions, and that’s about all we do know. Georges St. Pierre has been marred with knee injuries since the end of 2011. While he recuperates from knee surgery the UFC has been graced with an interim champion by the name of Carlos Condit, who won the title back at UFC 143. These two individuals can be considered 1 and 1A as the top two fighters in the weight class. The question of when they will meet to determine who should be the only man to hold the crown is still up in the air. 

Condit has elected to wait until St. Pierre is medically ready to return to the Octagon, and face the champion in an opportunity to unify the belts. While this is a great career move for Condit, it has put quite the damper on the rest of the division. Current estimates have St. Pierre returning in November at the very earliest. That will be nine months since Condit won the title. Nine months without the welterweight title being defended, so everyone else must sit patiently and wait their turn. Yet we don’t even know who is at the front of that line.

If you were to ask MMA enthusiasts who they believe is the current number one contender to the title, you would hear either Jake Ellenberger or Johny Hendricks. Both are viable answers in their own right, but their current rises to stardom don’t help sort out any of this mess.

Ellenberger is scheduled to face Martin Kampmann on June 1st at the Ultimate Fighter Live Finale show. While this match has been announced as the number one contender’s bout, one has to wonder how matchmakers can overlook what Hendricks has done as of late. At UFC 141 he became the first man in the UFC to finish Jon Fitch, and took just 12 seconds to do so. How does he follow that up? By defeating Fitch’s close friend Josh Koscheck at UFC on Fox 3. He’s the first man to defeat them back-to-back, and the only individual not named St. Pierre to have defeated them both. Even still, it seems as if the UFC powers that be are set in naming either Kampmann (whose resume is questionable as of late) or Ellenberger as the next number one contender.

Instead, the winner of this bout should be matched against Hendricks on an end of September or early October card. Timewise that would allow for the winner of this contest to face either Condit or St. Pierre in March, or even April if necessary. Alas, if things were only that simple.

Hendricks has already stated that he would rather wait for the winner of Condit versus St. Pierre before returning to the cage; that can potentially put him out until next February or March — nearly a whole year on the shelf for a fighter who is in a position to become a major star for the company. It will be very hard for him to stay relevant over that time, especially when the trend has been for MMA fans to quickly latch on to the next big thing, and forget what has occurred in less recent memory. While it’s understandable that Hendricks should try to hold onto the position he’s created for himself, one could easily point to the example of Rashad Evans, who tried to do the same thing, and ended up having to claw his way back to the top contender spot when he elected to wait on the sidelines.

While it is easy to point towards a potential fight between Hendricks and Ellenberger as the contest to make to determine a number one contender, what happens beyond those two fighters within the division?

Slowly but surely the old guard of the welterweight division is being replaced by a new crop of stars ready and willing to take their place. Fighters such as Koscheck, Fitch, and even Jake Shields have been considered top names in the division, always poised to defeat some rising star. However, that has changed as of late, as each has fallen to an individual looking to make a push towards the belt. Names such as Rory MacDonald, Mike Pierce, Charlie Brenneman, and even the struggling Rick Story are all currently considered fighters who could easily vault into the consensus top ten with one or two key victories. Going forward, these individuals should be booked accordingly, as they can become the fighters to watch as 2012 draws to a close and 2013 begins.

Rory MacDonald is the epitome of a highly-touted young prospect. At 22 years old, he boasts a 13-1 record, with that one loss coming to the current interim champion Condit, in a bout that he was winning until Condit snatched the victory away from him. Many people are expecting big things from St. Pierre’s training partner, and the UFC has a budding superstar on their hands.

His future should involve going through a person who was in his exact position a few years ago. Just two years MacDonald’s elder, John Hathaway knows what it is like to be considered a top young prospect. Before suffering his first defeat to Mike Pyle at UFC 120, the Brit was riding a wave of wins that included Diego Sanchez and Rick Story. After that, injuries began to plague him, but it seems as if he is back in top condition. Matching him against MacDonald would not only create an exciting matchup, but it would create the opportunity to build the winner into a household name without taking much away from the loser. Hathaway versus MacDonald is a near “must see” fight.

13-5, Mike Pierce is poised to make a run at 170. Since entering the UFC three years ago, he’s been defeated by only three men — Koscheck, Fitch and Hendricks – and two of these bouts were close split decisions in which many felt that Pierce had won. However, he can’t sit and ponder the “what ifs;” staying active is the best way for him to build the momentum needed to become a top contender in the weight class. He’s due to face Carlos Eduardo Rocha at UFC on FX 3, and a victory in that bout could see him matched against other name fighters, such as the winner of the suggested MacDonald–Hathaway bout.

Brenneman jumpstarted his career when he stepped in to defeat Rick Story on a day’s notice. Since then, a KO defeat to Anthony Johnson sent him tumbling back down the rankings, but he has still remained on many people’s radar as someone who could quickly leap back into title contention. If he can defeat Erick Silva at UFC of FX 3, he should face someone like Koscheck before the year is out, to see if he is truly ready to contend for the title at some point in 2013.

The UFC is in a prime position to infuse some excitement into the once-stagnant welterweight division. While the top of the ladder is locked into a stalemate due to Condit waiting on GSP, the rest of the group should be matched against each other in such a way to give the winners clear paths to face the champion that emerges. Mixed martial arts is a sport where the active are recognized, and these fighters need to stay active over the next year to prove they deserve positions among the elite at 170.