I’ve been questioning the UFC’s matchmaking in recent weeks, and the recent news that former UFC light heavyweight champion “Suga” Rashad Evans will take on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 156, the UFC’s annual Super Bowl weekend card in Las Vegas — likely in the main event of the evening — is yet another announcement that leaves me scratching my head.
Forrest Griffin vs. Phil Davis (UFC legend on the verge of retirement against a young, hulk-like beast), Michael Johnson vs. Myles Jury (TUF alum on a three-fight win streak vs. TUF alum with one UFC bout), Erik Perez vs. Byron Bloodworth (a guy coming off two finishes in the UFC to a guy who was finished in his only UFC fight). I really don’t understand the [rationale behind the UFC’s matchmaking in] any of these recently-announced bouts, but for me, Evans vs. Nogueira is the most alarming because it’s likely to be a pay-per-view-headliner.
Evans is a former UFC champ, a former winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” reality TV show, and has a 12-2-1 record in the UFC (not to mention he’s a superb analyst for FUEL TV). He is perennially ranked in the top three at 205 pounds in the world, and has proven time and time again that he’s one of the most talented fighters to ever have stepped foot in the Octagon. He’s also one of the UFC’s biggest stars, especially in terms of PPV buys.
During the UFC 152 post-fight press conference in Toronto, UFC president Dana White listed his company’s top-five biggest PPV draws. They were, in order: UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre; UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva; UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones; mouthpiece Chael Sonnen; and Evans.
Here is a breakdown of where Evans has appeared on a UFC card since making his promotional debut in November 2005. Looking at the breakdown, it’s clear the UFC relies on Evans as a top draw:
Here are the buyrates for the eight UFC PPVs that Evans has headlined:
- UFC 78: Bisping vs. Evans (400,000)
- UFC 88: Liddell vs. Evans (480,000)
- UFC 92: Griffin vs. Evans (1,000,000)
- UFC 98: Evans vs. Machida (635,000)
- UFC 108: Evans vs. Silva (300,000)
- UFC 114: Rampage vs. Evans (1,050,000
- UFC 133: Evans vs. Ortiz (310,000)
- UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans (700,000)
As you can tell, White wasn’t using his trademark hyperbole when discussing Evans’ drawing power, for he truly is a star in the sport, and the numbers back it up.
On the other hand, his opponent at UFC 156, Nogueira, is a very skilled fighter but he’s most definitely not a draw.
Since arriving in the UFC in November, 2009, “Little Nog” has appeared in five UFC fights. Similar to Evans, the breakdown of Nogueira’s UFC bouts is below:
- Nogueira has appeared on four UFC PPV main slots, but only once in the co-main event (UFC 119)
- Nogueira has appeared in one UFC TV event and he was in the main event (UFC Fight Night 24: Nogueira vs. Davis)
- Nogueira has never appeared on a preliminary UFC card
In terms of PPV buys, the one event Nogueira either headlined or co-headlined, UFC 119, sold only 295,000 PPVs and is generally considered one of the worst events in UFC history.
(It must be noted though that UFC Fight Night 24 broke Fight Night gate and attendance records, although I think that says more about Seattle’s thirst for a UFC event than the Nogueira vs. Phil Davis headliner. Still, though, a PPV is a much different animal.)
To me, the fight card that will most likely resemble UFC 156’s PPV numbers is UFC 108, where Evans headlined opposite Thiago Silva, another borderline top-10 light heavyweight, just like Nogueira. That fight card did a poor 300,000 buys for an Evans card, and with Nogueira being a comparable opponent in both skill and star power, expect UFC 156 to do similar numbers unless Evans is shockingly relegated to co-main event duty by the addition of a Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida main event (which would be surprising, considering Evans has been involved in nine-straight main events and has been pulling in big money for the company). If the event features both those bouts, then I expect it to pull closer to 400,000 buys.
The UFC is wasting Evans’ star power and drawing potential in a fight with Nogueira. Instead of using one of Evans’ one or two fights per year on a fighter like Nogueira, the UFC should have matched him up with another star like Machida or Henderson or even Anderson Silva and taken full advantage of Super Bowl weekend’s massive selling potential. Instead, though, watch UFC 156 do mediocre numbers and disappoint, just like last year’s UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit did. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Hey Adam. What makes you think Evans v. Nogueira would be the main event. I assume Henderson vs. Machida would be on this card as well. Did you hear something somewhere that hasn't been made public?
I know the ME is likely to be a non-title fight, but I can't imagine Super Bowl weekend is going to have that as the main event.