This weekend’s UFC 169 not only features two title fights that will decide the best fighters in the 145– and 135-pound divisions, but it also features a flyweight fight that will more than likely give the winner an opportunity to prove later this year that he is the best 125-pounder in the world.
Of course I’m talking about the flyweight bout between top contenders Ali Bagautinov and John Lineker. In a shallow division that features no clear-cut title contender to UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, Bagautinov and Lineker have emerged as close to worthy of getting a crack at the belt, and the winner of this fight will almost certainly get the next fight with Johnson.
Bagautinov is one of the new wave of fighters from Russia and its nearby nations with excellent sambo backgrounds and excellent standup, who have entered the UFC in recent years to great results. Nicknamed “Puncher King,” Bagautinov has so far earned two victories in two tries in the Octagon: a KO victory over Marcos Vinicius at UFC Fight Night 28, and a decision win over Tim Elliott at UFC 167, which was the biggest win of his career on the biggest stage he’s ever fought on. There is a ton of hype behind Bagautinov right now, and there is a circle of people who believe that with his combination of high-end grappling and striking, he will be a serious threat to Johnson if they do end up fighting. But of course he has to get past Lineker first, and that won’t be an easy feat.
Lineker is one of the hardest pound-for-pound punchers in the UFC, and is so far 4-1 in the Octagon with three brutal knockout wins in his last three outings. He’s looked like an absolute killer in his UFC tenure, but his biggest issue has been making weight, as he’s missed the 125-pound mark three times so far, including his last two fights. In some ways, Lineker is lucky he’s still on the UFC roster, when you consider the promotion cut Anthony Johnson for missing weight three times, but when you consider how shallow the flyweight division is, it makes sense as to why Lineker has been kept around. That’s why I think he still has a chance to earn a title shot this weekend if he’s able to knock out Bagautinov in devastating fashion – as long as he makes weight, that is.
Right now, there is no #1 contender at flyweight, and that’s why these two fighters who are unknown to most casual fans will have the opportunity to earn a shot at the title. The champ Johnson has already defeated Ian McCall once and Joseph Benavidez twice. He’s also defeated John Moraga and John Dodson. It sure seems like he’ll be holding his 125-pound belt for a long time, but Bagautinov and Lineker present different kinds of threats to him, and they both make for interesting matchups against the champ.
Do I think that Bagautinov or Lineker will actually beat Johnson, should one of them end up earning his crack at him? I’ll be honest – I don’t. But I never saw guys like Patrick Cote and Thales Leites beating Anderson Silva, and yet they still got their cracks at the title because the show has to go on, and that’s the same situation the UFC flyweight division is in right now.
The flyweights are exciting, but it’s clear that when one of the top contenders in the division is a fighter who has missed weight three times in five tries that it’s extremely shallow. But regardless, UFC 169 should feature a fun fight between two guys vying for a title shot, and it should be entertaining for the fans. Now, let’s just hope the fighters make weight.
• Ali Bagautinov vs. John Lineker
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UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber II is due to take place on February 1, 2014 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
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