UFC Contender Rankings: May 2012

These UFC Contender Rankings are intended to indicate where UFC fighters in each division rank in relation to one another. Taking into account wins, losses, quality of opposition, nature of wins/losses, and the recency of those wins/losses, it is meant to illustrate who fits where in each division, and which fighters’ stocks are rising and falling. Note that these are not the official MMA Ratings Divisional Fighter Rankings.

Heavyweight

The Heavyweight division is on the verge of being completely shaken up, as the all-heavyweight main card of UFC 146 represents an opportunity for the company’s largest men to either shine or be exposed under the brightest lights. Newcomer and former Strikeforce heavyweight Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, though eliminated in emphatic fashion from his previous promotion’s Grand Prix, is one victory away from the short list of Heavyweight contenders, while former champion Cain Velasquez has seen his original opponent Frank Mir capitalize upon Alistair Overeem‘s positive test and licensing issues to attain a shot at champion Junior Dos Santos. In a truly unexpected turn of events, Lavar Johnson of all people is riding a two-fight winning streak, and could see himself in the title picture if he can get past Stefan Struve. However, new faces like Stipe Miocic and Shane Del Rosario, or veterans like Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga, would also like to shoehorn their way into the proverbial “mix.” As with most heavyweight matchups, fortune can turn in under a minute, so stay tuned for the fallout of UFC 146.

Light Heavyweight

Jones–Evans is behind us, and Dan Henderson is lined up as the next man to challenge for the belt, but the next wave of title challengers has yet to present itself. More than half of the fighters in the Top 10 are coming off losses. Quinton Jackson falls precipitously after a very disappointing showing against Ryan Bader, who seems to have rebounded from his upset loss to Tito Ortiz. Alexander Gustafsson had a dominant showing against Thiago Silva, and is riding the longest non-Jon Jones winning streak in the division, but has still not cemented his place as a serious contender. Anthony Perosh is undefeated since dropping to Light Heavyweight, as is James Te Huna, and either could be looking for a higher-profile opponent the next time out, however Perosh has newcomer Ryan Jimmo next on the ledger. Speaking of newcomers, Glover Teixeira makes his long-awaited debut this month, and if he can impress against Kyle Kingsbury, could find himself fast-tracked into the title picture, particularly if the UFC has a Brazilian show coming up. A lot has to happen over the next five months to unearth a title challenger, and we’ll see how it all plays out.

Middleweight

This division has been shaken up a ton in the last few months, with more potential shakeups yet to come. Tim Boetsch crashed the party by thumping Yushin Okami in a comeback win, while Chris Weidman chased Demian Maia from the division after exposing his deficiencies on network TV. Speaking of Fox, Michael Bisping wasn’t able to pull off the upset over Chael Sonnen, but came pretty close, and ended up winning by losing, remaining in the contenders circle, even in defeat. Alan Belcher also acquitted himself well on Fox, taking out the dangerous Rousimar Palhares, and punching his ticket into the proverbial “mix.” The division is also getting an infusion of new/old blood, as three former Middleweight champions will be joining the division in the coming months, in the form of Rich Franklin, Jake Shields, and Hector Lombard, who could jump right into the pole position of the title race with a win over the UFC’s answer to G.I. Joe, Brian Stann. Assuming that Anderson Silva can get past Sonnen at UFC 148, he’ll have no shortage of potential opponents to tear through.

Welterweight

While Georges St. Pierre recovers from his ACL injury, this division continues to reshape itself. Jake Ellenberger is on a major hot streak, and looks to notch his seventh straight win against Martin Kampmann. Johny Hendricks is on a four-fight win streak after dispatching perennial contenders Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck in back-to-back fights. Former Middleweights Demian Maia, Dan Miller, and Aaron Simpson have joined the division, and it remains to be seen whether this breathes new life into their respective careers. Maia and Simpson in particular face stern tests in Dong Hyun Kim and Fitch. The blue chip prospect and GSP protege Rory MacDonald continues to surge, with his only loss in the Octagon coming to the current interim champion. And Siyar Bahadurzada announced his presence in the UFC in emphatic fashion, planking Paulo Thiago. He next faces Thiago Alves, and if he can replicate that performance, he could find himself “in the mix” in near record fashion. With fighters like these, we almost haven’t missed GSP, Nick Diaz, and BJ Penn. Almost.

Lightweight

The conventional wisdom was that the WEC lightweight crop would not achieve success in the UFC, but it now boasts one alum atop the division, with another two — Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone — represented in its Top 10. However, former WEC lightweight champion Jamie Varner has not seen similar success, struggling since being released from the WEC ranks, and even contemplating retirement. Stepping in to replace Evan Dunham on short notice against the hot prospect Edson Barboza at UFC 146, Varner can jump back into lightweight relevance with an upset win. Speaking of lightweight relevance, Jacob Volkmann is in possession of the division’s longest winning streak, but hasn’t even cracked the Top 15. With a win over the highly-regarded Paul Sass, however, he may announce himself as a fighter who can be overlooked no longer, and earn himself a stiffer, higher-profile test. While Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar prepare for their championship rematch, Clay Guida and Gray Maynard find themselves in a losers bracket of sorts; each man not only needs a win, but is hoping to see a different man emerge from the championship bout. Nathan Diaz appears to have the inside track on a title shot after his destruction of Jim Miller, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll truly remain inactive for so long, and allow the sands of the division to shift around him.

Featherweight

The upset win by “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung over Dustin Poirer has put a little bit of excitement into a division that Jose Aldo seems intent to empty out before it’s filled. Hatsu Hioki‘s unwillingness to jump directly into the fire against the champion has opened up a title opportunity for Erik Koch, whose four-fight winning streak is the longest of any contender. Let’s hope he doesn’t suffer the fates of others Aldo has vanquished, such as the semi-retired Kenny Florian, or the free-falling Manny Gamburyan and Mark Hominick, who have both lost three straight. Aldo’s most recent victim Chad Mendes would prefer to buck the trend, as he faces former lightweight Cody McKenzie at UFC 148. Speaking of former lightweights, Dennis Siver, Ross Pearson, and Charles Oliveira hope to make strong claims to title contendership in their next fights, so that they may capitalize on an opportunity if it presents itself, especially on an international card. Notwithstanding Pearson’s recent legal woes, you’d imagine that the UFC would be keen on headlining a UK card with a title fight for the former TUF winner. Then again, there have been rumors that if Clay Guida or Frankie Edgar are unsuccessful in their next fights, they may explore drops to featherweight; either of those men would likely be fast-tracked into a title shot. The ranks of 145 are slowly but surely coming into focus.

Bantamweight

With the injury to Dominick Cruz taking him out of action for the rest of 2012, Urijah Faber and Renan Barão will be fighting for the right to carry that flag at 135. However, they will not be without contenders, as Ivan Menjivar and Mike Easton battle on the same night, while Michael McDonald waits in the wings, after demolishing former champion Miguel Torres for his fifth straight win. Brad Pickett and Scott Jorgensen, having both lost to Barão, are probably pulling for Faber, as a win by the California Kid makes their respective roads to contention considerably shorter. Yves Jabouin, coming off his third straight win, is also looking to solidify his place in the title picture. A changing of the guard is certainly underway, and hopefully this upheaval keeps things interesting until Cruz returns.

Flyweight

While Joseph Benavidez waits in the wings to face the winner of the matchup at the TUF 15 Finale between Demetrious Johnson and Ian McCall (and hopefully there will be a real winner this time) to crown a champion, the division has continued to fill out.TUF alums John Dodson and Louis Gaudinot have dropped weight to secure victories, while newcomers John Lineker and Tim Elliot acquitted themselves quite well in defeat. More fighters are expected to join the division in the coming months, but in the short term, crowning a champion will remain the focal point of the weight class.

Go to the live UFC Contender Rankings.