Both Lombard and Marquardt in Must-Win Situations at UFC 166

By Adam Martin

It’s hard to believe, but this weekend at UFC 166, two competitors — Nate Marquardt and Hector Lombard — are facing must-win situations. The only problem is, these two men are fighting each other, meaning this will likely be the last time we see one of them in the Octagon.

But just who is going to stay and who is going to go won’t be decided until Saturday night.

Marquardt (32-12-2) was ranked as one of the top 10 middleweights in the world for a very long time, even fighting Anderson Silva for the belt back at UFC 73. But after testing positive for elevated testosterone levels before his welterweight debut at UFC on Versus 4, the UFC decided to part ways with him, and Nate “The Great” ended up in Strikeforce.

Instead of returning to middleweight, though, Marquardt decided to give his career a boost and follow through with the drop to welterweight. In his first 170-pound fight, Marquardt fought Tyron Woodley for the title vacated by Nick Diaz, and he ended up becoming the first man to defeat Woodley, knocking him out with a series of elbows and punches for one of the best KOs of 2012, and winning the Strikeforce welterweight title in the process.

Since then, though, the 34-year-old Marquardt has lost two straight fights: a decision to Tarec Saffiedine at the Strikeforce Finale that cost him his belt, and a KO loss to Jake Ellenberger at UFC 158 in his return to the UFC after Strikeforce folded.

Overall, Marquardt’s lost three out of his last five contests, and even though the losses came to top-flight competition, a third-straight loss to Lombard would likely signal his release once again from the UFC, due to his relatively high salary and him not living up to it. If he does get cut, look for the UFC to use the same “gatekeeper” excuse they used with Yushin Okami – you heard that here first.

Lombard (32-4-1, 1 NC) is in a similar boat. After racking up a 25-fight undefeated streak while fighting in his native Australia and in Bellator, the UFC signed Lombard to a huge contract that Bellator wouldn’t match, and in his first fight he was given a showcase opportunity against Tim Boetsch at UFC 149.

Unfortunately for Lombard, the fight against Boetsch was horrible (the whole UFC 149 card was) and even though most thought he deserved to win the fight, two of the judges sitting cageside gave it to Boetsch, and Lombard’s crazy win streak was snapped just like that.

“Lightning” did bounce back in impressive fashion, knocking out Rousimar Palhares at UFC on FX 6, but he followed that up with a decision loss to the “gatekeeper” Okami at UFC on FUEL TV 8, a fight that showed he was just too small to compete at 185 pounds in the UFC. So, like Marquardt, Lombard also decided to drop to middleweight (or the UFC forced him to, basically), and this weekend he’ll be taking on the fellow formerly-top-10-ranked middleweight in a featured preliminary bout at UFC 166.

The fight, at least on paper, promises to provide excitement, but its card placement as a prelim and not as a main card fight signals to me that both fighters have got to know that they are on the chopping block – rightly or wrongly – this weekend. And hopefully that pressure brings out the best in both of them.

It’s crazy to think how fast things change in MMA, for just two years ago Marquardt and Lombard were two of the top 10 middleweights in the world. And now they’re fighting for their lives as welterweights. What a crazy sport this is.